FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[WW]

Sportbet.com has this game NCC minus 14 1/2, minus 650 on the money line and O/U 69. I'm sure y'all have confidence in the Cardinals, but doesn't that seem a little -- a lot -- out of whack???

Or they know something. Those betting firms aren't in the habit of losing money.

No they're not, but they do put out bad lines once in a while. And they have no base research on d3 results this season because they've offered no action on d3. I think it's just an uninformed line for a game they don't think will draw much action, so why waste a lot of time researching it?

That could very well be the case.  If so, why bother putting out a line at all?

To generate action. Some action is better than none. They'll get action from me that otherwise wouldn't have been bet at all. Of course, a bad line will end up costing them money, but they don't know its a bad line yet.

I took UWW plus 10.5 on fanduel.  seems way too high to me.

When did you make that bet? That line is plus 14 now on fanduel. Must be some crazy money on NCC to move the line that much.

[USee]

Sportbet.com has this game NCC minus 14 1/2, minus 650 on the money line and O/U 69. I'm sure y'all have confidence in the Cardinals, but doesn't that seem a little -- a lot -- out of whack???

Or they know something. Those betting firms aren't in the habit of losing money.

No they're not, but they do put out bad lines once in a while. And they have no base research on d3 results this season because they've offered no action on d3. I think it's just an uninformed line for a game they don't think will draw much action, so why waste a lot of time researching it?

That could very well be the case.  If so, why bother putting out a line at all?

To generate action. Some action is better than none. They'll get action from me that otherwise wouldn't have been bet at all. Of course, a bad line will end up costing them money, but they don't know its a bad line yet.

Or you don't know its a good line yet? seems to me the line is going to generate some action either way. As you note, moving from 10.5-14.5 indicates lots of money on NCC so your bet  helps them even it out. If they pay out the same money they take in, that's a winner for them right?

[WW]

Sportbet.com has this game NCC minus 14 1/2, minus 650 on the money line and O/U 69. I'm sure y'all have confidence in the Cardinals, but doesn't that seem a little -- a lot -- out of whack???

Or they know something. Those betting firms aren't in the habit of losing money.

No they're not, but they do put out bad lines once in a while. And they have no base research on d3 results this season because they've offered no action on d3. I think it's just an uninformed line for a game they don't think will draw much action, so why waste a lot of time researching it?

That could very well be the case.  If so, why bother putting out a line at all?

To generate action. Some action is better than none. They'll get action from me that otherwise wouldn't have been bet at all. Of course, a bad line will end up costing them money, but they don't know its a bad line yet.

Or you don't know its a good line yet? seems to me the line is going to generate some action either way. As you note, moving from 10.5-14.5 indicates lots of money on NCC so your bet  helps them even it out. If they pay out the same money they take in, that's a winner for them right?

It is, but they're really exposed by a bad line. A 12-point NCC win, for example, would pay out heavy on both sides— those that got NCC at minus 10 1/2, thus driving the line up to draw UWW $, AND those that got UWW at plus 14.

A good line doesn't move -- it draws evenly from both sides, and all the house odes is collect the vig. A bad line has to adjust to put money on both sides, and in this case, adjust heavily, leaving a worst-case for the house — an outcome that pays heavily to both sides.

You see, USee, sportsbooks have very little interest in actually gambling themselves.

[USee]

It seems that by your definition, a bad line has UWW losing by somewhere between 10.5 and 14.5 pts. If UWW wins, then the house is ok since they only pay out the 14.5 dudes like you.

[Stagg Again!!]

It seems that by your definition, a bad line has UWW losing by somewhere between 10.5 and 14.5 pts. If UWW wins, then the house is ok since they only pay out the 14.5 dudes like you.

A bit rainy at BW South... Cardinal fans owning Woodforest Bank Stadium this year!  Very few UWW fans showing up so far.  Lots of time before kickoff, but a few hundred NCC fans and only a handful of Warhawk faithful.

[USee]

time for my final take.

I am torn on this game for what I want. If NCC wins, I think it lights a bigger fire under my Thunder boys going into next year and takes this rivalry to 2.0. If they lose, Wheaton fans get to see depression in Naperville for a second time this season, always a plus.

As for the game, I think stats are "sometimes" deceiving but in this case, this NCC offense is the real deal and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion. They have it all and make you defend the whole field, the whole game. And they have the nations best QB (Sorry Erdman and Zimbeleman fans) calling the shots. I would be stunned if NCC scored less than 30 in this game, though the Hawks have the right approach to try.

On the other side, Coach Thorne said in the Muhlenberg Presser something like "Our Offense gets the headlines but our defense has been overlooked all year". No they haven't. They have been abused by the teams that have the game to abuse them. I think UWW will see how to attack this defense but their strengths play into the strength of this as they can stop the run. If Meylor somehow figures out how to complete 70% of his passes that could make things interesting but this Warhawk Offense will have to be mistake free to keep up I believe.

I am not much of a prediction guy, but since this is the CCIW Stagg Rep I'll make an exception. I honestly wouldn't be heartbroken to see NCC lose by 10 but I am thinking NCC wins this and I would give the 14.5. 42-24 NCC.

[robertgoulet]

It seems that by your definition, a bad line has UWW losing by somewhere between 10.5 and 14.5 pts. If UWW wins, then the house is ok since they only pay out the 14.5 dudes like you.

A bit rainy at BW South... Cardinal fans owning Woodforest Bank Stadium this year!  Very few UWW fans showing up so far.  Lots of time before kickoff, but a few hundred NCC fans and only a handful of Warhawk faithful.

Had tentatively planned on making the trek down but am settling for watching at a local bar in South Austin. #NCCYOUKNOW

[WRMUalum13]

It seems that by your definition, a bad line has UWW losing by somewhere between 10.5 and 14.5 pts. If UWW wins, then the house is ok since they only pay out the 14.5 dudes like you.

A bit rainy at BW South... Cardinal fans owning Woodforest Bank Stadium this year!  Very few UWW fans showing up so far.  Lots of time before kickoff, but a few hundred NCC fans and only a handful of Warhawk faithful.

It's too bad NCC and UWW are less than 100 miles apart but both have to travel so far to play.

[robertgoulet]

time for my final take.

I am torn on this game for what I want. If NCC wins, I think it lights a bigger fire under my Thunder boys going into next year and takes this rivalry to 2.0. If they lose, Wheaton fans get to see depression in Naperville for a second time this season, always a plus.

As for the game, I think stats are "sometimes" deceiving but in this case, this NCC offense is the real deal and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion. They have it all and make you defend the whole field, the whole game. And they have the nations best QB (Sorry Erdman and Zimbeleman fans) calling the shots. I would be stunned if NCC scored less than 30 in this game, though the Hawks have the right approach to try.

On the other side, Coach Thorne said in the Muhlenberg Presser something like "Our Offense gets the headlines but our defense has been overlooked all year". No they haven't. They have been abused by the teams that have the game to abuse them. I think UWW will see how to attack this defense but their strengths play into the strength of this as they can stop the run. If Meylor somehow figures out how to complete 70% of his passes that could make things interesting but this Warhawk Offense will have to be mistake free to keep up I believe.

I am not much of a prediction guy, but since this is the CCIW Stagg Rep I'll make an exception. I honestly wouldn't be heartbroken to see NCC lose by 10 but I am thinking NCC wins this and I would give the 14.5. 42-24 NCC.

I harbour the same feelings wrt the game. I think NCC's offense will be able to score on UWW and I think that NCC's strength on defense is stopping the run. If Meylor can stretch the field a bit we will have a tight game. If not, I see an outcome much like you predict (my predict is 38-21).

[HScoach]

It seems that by your definition, a bad line has UWW losing by somewhere between 10.5 and 14.5 pts. If UWW wins, then the house is ok since they only pay out the 14.5 dudes like you.

A bit rainy at BW South... Cardinal fans owning Woodforest Bank Stadium this year!  Very few UWW fans showing up so far.  Lots of time before kickoff, but a few hundred NCC fans and only a handful of Warhawk faithful.

Hmmm, too bad the game isn't in Canton.  Beautiful day in Ohio!

[emma17]

time for my final take.

I am torn on this game for what I want. If NCC wins, I think it lights a bigger fire under my Thunder boys going into next year and takes this rivalry to 2.0. If they lose, Wheaton fans get to see depression in Naperville for a second time this season, always a plus.

As for the game, I think stats are "sometimes" deceiving but in this case, this NCC offense is the real deal and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion. They have it all and make you defend the whole field, the whole game. And they have the nations best QB (Sorry Erdman and Zimbeleman fans) calling the shots. I would be stunned if NCC scored less than 30 in this game, though the Hawks have the right approach to try.

On the other side, Coach Thorne said in the Muhlenberg Presser something like "Our Offense gets the headlines but our defense has been overlooked all year". No they haven't. They have been abused by the teams that have the game to abuse them. I think UWW will see how to attack this defense but their strengths play into the strength of this as they can stop the run. If Meylor somehow figures out how to complete 70% of his passes that could make things interesting but this Warhawk Offense will have to be mistake free to keep up I believe.

I am not much of a prediction guy, but since this is the CCIW Stagg Rep I'll make an exception. I honestly wouldn't be heartbroken to see NCC lose by 10 but I am thinking NCC wins this and I would give the 14.5. 42-24 NCC.

You have solid points here USee.
If UWW ends up winning, I'd think a major reason will be this opinion

and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion

proves to be inaccurate. I understand why you state it, just saying this may be the area UWW really surprises.

[SpartanHouse]

Rooting hard for NCC tonight but UWW...please do not let Kamienski wreck havoc all over you. Dude has killed everyone and no one has appeared to have the mindset that he won't beat us. Have a good plan for him. Please please please don't play man vs him on the GL with no help on him. Why on earth Everyone does that on him I have no idea.

[USee]

time for my final take.

I am torn on this game for what I want. If NCC wins, I think it lights a bigger fire under my Thunder boys going into next year and takes this rivalry to 2.0. If they lose, Wheaton fans get to see depression in Naperville for a second time this season, always a plus.

As for the game, I think stats are "sometimes" deceiving but in this case, this NCC offense is the real deal and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion. They have it all and make you defend the whole field, the whole game. And they have the nations best QB (Sorry Erdman and Zimbeleman fans) calling the shots. I would be stunned if NCC scored less than 30 in this game, though the Hawks have the right approach to try.

On the other side, Coach Thorne said in the Muhlenberg Presser something like "Our Offense gets the headlines but our defense has been overlooked all year". No they haven't. They have been abused by the teams that have the game to abuse them. I think UWW will see how to attack this defense but their strengths play into the strength of this as they can stop the run. If Meylor somehow figures out how to complete 70% of his passes that could make things interesting but this Warhawk Offense will have to be mistake free to keep up I believe.

I am not much of a prediction guy, but since this is the CCIW Stagg Rep I'll make an exception. I honestly wouldn't be heartbroken to see NCC lose by 10 but I am thinking NCC wins this and I would give the 14.5. 42-24 NCC.

You have solid points here USee.
If UWW ends up winning, I'd think a major reason will be this opinion

and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion

proves to be inaccurate. I understand why you state it, just saying this may be the area UWW really surprises.

I agree Emma. UWW was really impressive against StJ. Could be the case. My eye test says Wheaton is the #1 defense for a reason and Del Val was #2 defense for a reason. But Wheaton beat NCC by 14 and Del Val lost by 3 scores. So there is room in there for UWW to make their statement. They don't have to be as good as everyone of those defenses, just better than the ones that lost.

[WRMUalum13]

time for my final take.

I am torn on this game for what I want. If NCC wins, I think it lights a bigger fire under my Thunder boys going into next year and takes this rivalry to 2.0. If they lose, Wheaton fans get to see depression in Naperville for a second time this season, always a plus.

As for the game, I think stats are "sometimes" deceiving but in this case, this NCC offense is the real deal and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion. They have it all and make you defend the whole field, the whole game. And they have the nations best QB (Sorry Erdman and Zimbeleman fans) calling the shots. I would be stunned if NCC scored less than 30 in this game, though the Hawks have the right approach to try.

On the other side, Coach Thorne said in the Muhlenberg Presser something like "Our Offense gets the headlines but our defense has been overlooked all year". No they haven't. They have been abused by the teams that have the game to abuse them. I think UWW will see how to attack this defense but their strengths play into the strength of this as they can stop the run. If Meylor somehow figures out how to complete 70% of his passes that could make things interesting but this Warhawk Offense will have to be mistake free to keep up I believe.

I am not much of a prediction guy, but since this is the CCIW Stagg Rep I'll make an exception. I honestly wouldn't be heartbroken to see NCC lose by 10 but I am thinking NCC wins this and I would give the 14.5. 42-24 NCC.

You have solid points here USee.
If UWW ends up winning, I'd think a major reason will be this opinion

and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion

proves to be inaccurate. I understand why you state it, just saying this may be the area UWW really surprises.

I agree Emma. UWW was really impressive against StJ. Could be the case. My eye test says Wheaton is the #1 defense for a reason and Del Val was #2 defense for a reason. But Wheaton beat NCC by 14 and Del Val lost by 3 scores. So there is room in there for UWW to make their statement. They don't have to be as good as everyone of those defenses, just better than the ones that lost.

I think UWW's defense is a little more vulnerable against the pass then what they looked like against SJU. I saw soooo many dropped passes in that game that I think SJU probably should have won by a couple scores if they'd caught a few more.

[emma17]

time for my final take.

I am torn on this game for what I want. If NCC wins, I think it lights a bigger fire under my Thunder boys going into next year and takes this rivalry to 2.0. If they lose, Wheaton fans get to see depression in Naperville for a second time this season, always a plus.

As for the game, I think stats are "sometimes" deceiving but in this case, this NCC offense is the real deal and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion. They have it all and make you defend the whole field, the whole game. And they have the nations best QB (Sorry Erdman and Zimbeleman fans) calling the shots. I would be stunned if NCC scored less than 30 in this game, though the Hawks have the right approach to try.

On the other side, Coach Thorne said in the Muhlenberg Presser something like "Our Offense gets the headlines but our defense has been overlooked all year". No they haven't. They have been abused by the teams that have the game to abuse them. I think UWW will see how to attack this defense but their strengths play into the strength of this as they can stop the run. If Meylor somehow figures out how to complete 70% of his passes that could make things interesting but this Warhawk Offense will have to be mistake free to keep up I believe.

I am not much of a prediction guy, but since this is the CCIW Stagg Rep I'll make an exception. I honestly wouldn't be heartbroken to see NCC lose by 10 but I am thinking NCC wins this and I would give the 14.5. 42-24 NCC.

You have solid points here USee.
If UWW ends up winning, I'd think a major reason will be this opinion

and those defenses he went up against are every bit as good or better than UWW's in my opinion

proves to be inaccurate. I understand why you state it, just saying this may be the area UWW really surprises.

I agree Emma. UWW was really impressive against StJ. Could be the case. My eye test says Wheaton is the #1 defense for a reason and Del Val was #2 defense for a reason. But Wheaton beat NCC by 14 and Del Val lost by 3 scores. So there is room in there for UWW to make their statement. They don't have to be as good as everyone of those defenses, just better than the ones that lost.

I think UWW's defense is a little more vulnerable against the pass then what they looked like against SJU. I saw soooo many dropped passes in that game that I think SJU probably should have won by a couple scores if they'd caught a few more.

Yeah, I wouldn't put too much credence in that thought process. UWW had dropped passes and UWW was inside the 15 and settled for field goals a few times.
I reckon if either team played a perfect game they'd have won by a couple scores.