FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Jbothe]

Didn't see the NPU game in St. Louis; it has been an overwhelmingly busy day for North Park sports. Don't know if I'd care to watch the entire game on demand, but I sure would like to see Jereme Ombogo's 97-yard TD kickoff return.

I was at the game in person. Game is still up on WashU sports network.

I said to my family when I saw #1 back deep "don't kick it deep."  Fifteen seconds later he was in the end zone.

All WashU after that.

North Park slowed down the WashU run game but struggled against the pass. Ware was banged up for WashU.

North Park had a tough time moving the ball. Lots of pressure on the QB. I think with all the sacks they only had 2 total yards at half.

Augie/WashU is an interesting match up.

[Jbothe]

IWU's starting QB did not play in this game.

That's no minor detail. (Not that you were implying otherwise, of course.) No team in the league is more dependent upon its starting quarterback than Illinois Wesleyan is upon Dermot Smythe.

That's tough if Smyth was out for Wesleyan. Titans have had a ton of injuries this season. Both sides of the ball. It has affected how they play greatly.

[CarollFan]

IWU's starting QB did not play in this game.

That's no minor detail. (Not that you were implying otherwise, of course.) No team in the league is more dependent upon its starting quarterback than Illinois Wesleyan is upon Dermot Smythe.

That's tough is Smyth was out for Wesleyan. Titans have had a ton of injuries this season. Both sides of the ball. It has affected how they play greatly.

Yes IWU announcers mentioned the injuries and kind of called out their rush defense as Carroll controlled the second half mostly running.

WashU @ Augie should be a good game between both 7-2 teams. One of them going back to Isthmus.

I noticed WashU D held NPU to -34 yds rushing on 23 attempts and WashU had 14 TFL's, 5 sacks.

[Gregory Sager]

Didn't see the NPU game in St. Louis; it has been an overwhelmingly busy day for North Park sports. Don't know if I'd care to watch the entire game on demand, but I sure would like to see Jereme Ombogo's 97-yard TD kickoff return.

I was at the game in person. Game is still up on WashU sports network.

I said to my family when I saw #1 back deep "don't kick it deep."  Fifteen seconds later he was in the end zone.

All WashU after that.

North Park slowed down the WashU run game but struggled against the pass. Ware was banged up for WashU.

North Park had a tough time moving the ball. Lots of pressure on the QB. I think with all the sacks they only had 2 total yards at half.

Augie/WashU is an interesting match up.

NPU is on its fourth QB of the year, and this one's a freshman. Combine that with the plethora of injuries that the talented but thin O-line has suffered, and it's a recipe for a static offense that has difficulty getting the ball to its outstanding receiver corps (Ombogo, McCloud, and Catron) in space due to a lack of time.

The defensive backfield has been a chronic problem for the Vikings this season. Waaaay too many DPI calls on this group.

[CarollFan]

Logan predicts WashU winning at Augie.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Week%2011.html

I know one thing he had the Carroll/IWU game wrong.

[USee]

Logan predicts WashU winning at Augie.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Week%2011.html

I know one thing he had the Carroll/IWU game wrong.

Not really. He gave Carroll a 36% chance to win. And had he known Smythe wasn't playing that likely would have been higher.

[Nitzermania]

As we enter the final week of the regular season and scoreboard watching takes on a higher priority, I am wondering what a Wheaton fan should be rooting for, assuming they beat NPU next Saturday (never assume of course...).  As Wheaton is currently ranked #27 in the NPI (per D3 Datacast), is it possible they could rise to #24 or higher and receive a first round bye?  I am thinking that anything that could improve their NPI score would help.  Under that category would be Augie beating WashU (away win vs. home win).  Otherwise, one would root for teams ranked higher on the NPI to lose, without the team that wins vaulting over Wheaton to have a higher NPI number, correct?  In that category I am thinking Wheaton would hope for:

UW-OshKosh    >  UW Whitewater
Maryville      >  Trinity
Coe            >  Central
Johns Hopkins  >  F & M

Also possibilities would be Adrian > Alma and Depauw > Wabash, but those could be in the vault scenario where a win for those teams would propel their NPI #/ranking over Wheaton with another strong, quality win.  Are there other games to be watching?

Curious to hear what others think.

[CarollFan]

As we enter the final week of the regular season and scoreboard watching takes on a higher priority, I am wondering what a Wheaton fan should be rooting for, assuming they beat NPU next Saturday (never assume of course...).  As Wheaton is currently ranked #27 in the NPI (per D3 Datacast), is it possible they could rise to #24 or higher and receive a first round bye?  I am thinking that anything that could improve their NPI score would help.  Under that category would be Augie beating WashU (away win vs. home win).  Otherwise, one would root for teams ranked higher on the NPI to lose, without the team that wins vaulting over Wheaton to have a higher NPI number, correct?  In that category I am thinking Wheaton would hope for:

UW-OshKosh    >  UW Whitewater
Maryville      >  Trinity
Coe            >  Central
Johns Hopkins  >  F & M

Also possibilities would be Adrian > Alma and Depauw > Wabash, but those could be in the vault scenario where a win for those teams would propel their NPI #/ranking over Wheaton with another strong, quality win.  Are there other games to be watching?

Curious to hear what others think.

Their NPI is most likely not going to change much. The reason is their wins being used are Augie, WashU, Carroll, Carthage, IWU.

IWU plays NCC
WashU @ Augie (yes away win better but any improvement could be offset by WashU loss). Augie being the away win for Wheaton.
Carroll @ Carthage

You need a week like NCC had this past week where majority if not all teams you beat being used in the NPI calculation win.

Any movement upward in rank will most likely have to be from teams higher ranked losing.

I think they are expected to end up around where they are now.
I did a what if scenario with Logan's, "what are the odds.." forecast and I had Augie winning and UWW losing and average NPI was 65.854 and avg rank 25.8

[CarollFan]

Logan predicts WashU winning at Augie.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Week%2011.html

I know one thing he had the Carroll/IWU game wrong.

Not really. He gave Carroll a 36% chance to win. And had he known Smythe wasn't playing that likely would have been higher.

Yes I'd say incorporate the 2 deep in the model but for some reason that rarely shows the change at QB.

[USee]

Wheaton has close to zero chance for a bye but a home game in round 1 is a strong possibility

[Jbothe]

Didn't see the NPU game in St. Louis; it has been an overwhelmingly busy day for North Park sports. Don't know if I'd care to watch the entire game on demand, but I sure would like to see Jereme Ombogo's 97-yard TD kickoff return.

I was at the game in person. Game is still up on WashU sports network.

I said to my family when I saw #1 back deep "don't kick it deep."  Fifteen seconds later he was in the end zone.

All WashU after that.

North Park slowed down the WashU run game but struggled against the pass. Ware was banged up for WashU.

North Park had a tough time moving the ball. Lots of pressure on the QB. I think with all the sacks they only had 2 total yards at half.

Augie/WashU is an interesting match up.

NPU is on its fourth QB of the year, and this one's a freshman. Combine that with the plethora of injuries that the talented but thin O-line has suffered, and it's a recipe for a static offense that has difficulty getting the ball to its outstanding receiver corps (Ombogo, McCloud, and Catron) in space due to a lack of time.

The defensive backfield has been a chronic problem for the Vikings this season. Waaaay too many DPI calls on this group.

This makes a lot of sense after watching the game. Probably a frustrating season for North Park this year.

[Jbothe]

IWU's starting QB did not play in this game.

That's no minor detail. (Not that you were implying otherwise, of course.) No team in the league is more dependent upon its starting quarterback than Illinois Wesleyan is upon Dermot Smythe.

That's tough is Smyth was out for Wesleyan. Titans have had a ton of injuries this season. Both sides of the ball. It has affected how they play greatly.

Yes IWU announcers mentioned the injuries and kind of called out their rush defense as Carroll controlled the second half mostly running.

WashU @ Augie should be a good game between both 7-2 teams. One of them going back to Isthmus.

I noticed WashU D held NPU to -34 yds rushing on 23 attempts and WashU had 14 TFL's, 5 sacks.

I think the IWU has basically had to change their defensive scheme due to injuries. DL and LB have been hit hard.

Top RB was lost for the season due to ACL in pre season I believe.

[NCC2010]

Here are how the top 8 seeds look per Logan's NPI predictor tool.  I went ahead and assumed records for OOC opponents for all of the top 9 listed below, I think it should finish pretty close to this.  CNU could finish as high as 3 but needs Monmouth to lose to drop Wartburg down. UWRF and Bethel will be really close for 6-7, with UWRF OOC opponents Alma playing Adrian, Coe playing Central, both really tough games. 

1. Johns Hopkins 81.886 (avg NPI)
2. Mount Union 79.506
3. Wartburg 77.948
4. Christopher Newport 77.586
5. NCC 76.387
6. UWRF 75.36-74.15 (Alma, Coe results matter)
7. Bethel 74.94
8. Berry 71.82
9. John Carroll 70.9

All things considered I think this would be a great draw for NCC with Mount, Wartburg, UWRF & Bethel all on the opposite side of the bracket.

[CarollFan]

Here are how the top 8 seeds look per Logan's NPI predictor tool.  I went ahead and assumed records for OOC opponents for all of the top 9 listed below, I think it should finish pretty close to this.  CNU could finish as high as 3 but needs Monmouth to lose to drop Wartburg down. UWRF and Bethel will be really close for 6-7, with UWRF OOC opponents Alma playing Adrian, Coe playing Central, both really tough games. 

1. Johns Hopkins 81.886 (avg NPI)
2. Mount Union 79.506
3. Wartburg 77.948
4. Christopher Newport 77.586
5. NCC 76.387
6. UWRF 75.36-74.15 (Alma, Coe results matter)
7. Bethel 74.94
8. Berry 71.82
9. John Carroll 70.9

All things considered I think this would be a great draw for NCC with Mount, Wartburg, UWRF & Bethel all on the opposite side of the bracket.

UWRF with impressive victories over UWW and UWL. They've had the potent offense with their QB Blaha throwing for over 9,000 yards in his career but the D looks like it's stepped up.

[Gregory Sager]

Logan predicts WashU winning at Augie.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Week%2011.html

I know one thing he had the Carroll/IWU game wrong.

Not really. He gave Carroll a 36% chance to win. And had he known Smythe wasn't playing that likely would have been higher.

I don't know much about Logan's algorithm. Does it really go into that much depth for each game? Or does he personally intervene and tinker with it to account for key personnel losses (since Dermot Smythe is the very definition of a "key personnel loss")? Seems like an awful lot of extra work when you are talking about, what, 115 D3 football games every week? And, if I remember correctly, Logan's a family man, so his spare time is probably limited.