BB: Just Some Guy's West Region Rankings

[Ralph Turner]

PLU can finish with a West Region record of 28-5.  They have had a strong recovery from going 1-3 in the Anthem AZ series vs SCIAC teams in February.

[Spence]

But wouldn't they be going against the national pool for a Pool C? Region record would matter as far as putting them at the head of the line for the west region, but it wouldn't necessarily get them in, correct?

[Ralph Turner]

But wouldn't they be going against the national pool for a Pool C? Region record would matter as far as putting them at the head of the line for the west region, but it wouldn't necessarily get them in, correct?

Yes, I am being very conservative on the Region Winning Percentage, games against Ranked teams, Quality of Wins Index and other criteria.

I have not calculated the in-region winning percentages from last year's Pool C bids.  I think that GFU's having a winning record against Chapman, the SCIAC champ (whoever that is) and gives them a good chance.

We always see strong contingents from New Jersey and New England.  Last year was the first year of Pool C in the expanded format.  I am not ready to post the bubble.

(Also, this site has not had the chance for Jim to get full use of the tools that Pat has been building.  Getting access to up-to-date scores will be the next big addition, but working with 350 SIDs is a logistical challenge.    )

[Just_Some_Guy]

Coming Today... Just_Some_Guy's West Region Rankings...

[Spence]

Yes, sadly I'm all too aware lol. I tried getting a friend of mine to do power rankings for D-III that he does for D-I. Problem was for him to do them well he would have needed D-III, D-II and NAIA because of all the cross-divisional games. He didn't want to just do D-III.

If the conferences would update their sites in a timely manner (The Dixie Conference is great on this front) then it would be a big help.

Agree that it's WAY too early for the bubble...two weeks ago people were talking about Augustana being on top of the Central region...today they're 4th in the CCIW.

[Ralph Turner]

Spence, let me think about my opinion of this week's West Region rankings.

I think that we could make a case for:

1)  Chapman
2)  PLU
3)  Texas Lutheran (I will defer to my friends in the NWC.)
4)  GFU
5)  LaVerne(plays Cal Lu on Apr 20-21)
6)  Cal Lu
7)  UT-Dallas
8 ) UMHB

Looking forward to your rankings, Some Guy! 

[Just_Some_Guy]

1. UT-Tyler 30-0 – I know they're not eligible for the post season and that's why they were left off of the national poll, but a 30-0 start including sweeps of Texas Lutheran and UT Dallas makes this team deserving of the #1 spot in the west region, and the #1 spot in the nation. The offense is relentless top to bottom and they probably have more depth on the mound than any division III team this year. They're hitting .377 as a team and their team ERA is 2.84

Key Contributors:
SS Kendall Fox - .478 avg, .639 OBP, 37 BBs, 9-9 SB
3B Joseph Towns - .440 avg, 11 2B, 28 RBI
1B Brett Amyx - .385 avg, 9 HR, 45 RBI
SP Ryan Campbell – 6-0, 3.14 ERA, 51 Ks in 51.2 IP
RP Nate Jennings – 2-0, 4 SV, 0.00 ERA, 37 Ks in 18.2 IP, 0.68 avg against

Key Games: def McMurry 3-1, swept Texas Lutheran & UT-Dallas in 3 game series



2. Chapman 25-4 – No surprise here either. It's hard to pick against a team that has dominated the West Region the last few years.  They have maintained that status with their only West region losses coming to McMurry and East Bay. They've marched through the SCIAC so far this year and played very well against ranked teams coming over from the east coast for Spring Break. With Drag, Kitchens and Yacko on the bump they're TOUGH to beat.

Key Contributors:
SP Devin Drag – 10-0, 2.28 ERA, 2 SV, 72Ks in 71 IP (ouch 71 IP), .238 avg against
3B/RP/SP Kurt Yacko - .421 avg, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 5 SBs
                                  - 3-1, 1.70 ERA, 6 SV, 69 Ks in 53 IP, .211 avg against
SS Ryan Cavan - .391 avg, .510 OBP, 31 BB/HBP, 11 SB
SP Wayde Kitchens – 7-1, 2.47 ERA, 71 Ks in 65.2 IP, 3 CG, .205 avg against
OF Tyler Dean - .324 avg, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 9 SBs

Key Games:
Swept Cal Lutheran
Swept La Verne
2 of 3 from McMurry
2 of 3 from East Bay
2 of 3 from Kean (#7)
Def. Redlands 16-5, 8-6
Def. Pomona  11-4
Def. Montclair State 10-6
Def. Ithaca College 5-3 (RV)



3. Texas Lutheran – 25-5-1  - I am going TLU here over Pac Lutheran because they've been there the past two years and are a battle tested squad. Also, I'm still a little leery of Pac Lutheran's struggles with the SCIAC early in the year. I had dropped them (TLU) down last time I ranked them, but they're scrappy and have found ways to win. They're atop of what I think is a very tough conference especially with the emergence of UMHB as a solid team.

Key Contributors:
SS Jacob Kaase - .451 avg, 12 2B, 37 RBI, .526 OBP, 5 SBs
SP Daniel Besa – 7-0, 5.23 ERA – hasn't been pretty but workhorse of a good staff
RP Robert Conley – 2-0, 4 SV, 0.69 ERA, .165 avg against
OF Ryan Nokelby - .356 avg, 33 R, 10 2B, 8 SBs
2B Scott Matocha - .343 avg, 9 SBs, .976 F%
Also, keep an eye on SP Adam Enloe who has given up 1 ER in his last 20 IP

Key Games:  swept by UT Tyler, swept McMurry, swept Concordia in 3 game series, also defeated Trinity and Southwestern (neither of which are having a particularly good year).



4. Pacific Lutheran – 23-6 – First the SCIAC beat up on them in AZ, then Linfield took two out of three and I started to write off the Lutes, but then they went on a run and swept #5 George Fox. With plenty of senior leadership and George Fox dropping another conference game this weekend to Linfield Pacific Lutheran is in command of the NWC (which doesn't have a conference tournament). Might we see a new representative from the NWC in the West Region playoffs this year?

Key Contributors:
SP Joe DiPietro – 7-1, 1.62 ERA, .230 avg against
SP Brett Brunner – 4-2, 1.92 ERA, .247 avg against
1B Jordan Post - .333 avg, 3 HR, 23 RBI
CF Ryan Thorne - .292 avg, 23 SBs

Key Games: Swept George Fox in a 3 game series, Lost 2 of 3 to Linfield, Lost to Redlands 2-7, Lost to Cal Lutheran 1-7, def La Verne 16-6



5. George Fox – 20-5 – I agree with Ralph in that GFU pretty much has to win out in the NWC and take 5 of 6 from East Bay/Chapman to warrant an at large bid if Pac Lutheran wins the NWC over them.  That said, Pac Luth COULD drop three NWC games IF GFU wins out, but getting swept might've cost them their West region regional chances. Still a VERY dangerous team with a filthy top of the lineup. You can't tell from the stats but this team might be hindered by bullpen depth., though it was the starting pitching that was touched up by Pacific Lutheran, hard to say.

Key Contributors:
1B Bryan Donohue - .442 avg, 31 R
OF Dan Wentzell - .407 avg, 6 HR, 38 RBI, .513 OBP, 6 SB
OF Daniel Downs - .385 avg, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 7 SB
OF Drew Johnson - .358 avg, 18 SBs
3B Bo Thunnel - .333 avg, 3 HR, 31 RBI
Bratney, Langeliers,  & Albrecht all deserve a mention with respectable ERAs and average against. I just think that this team is one that is more dependent on the top of that order than on the bump.

Key Games: swept by Pacific Lutheran, split w/ Linfield (3rd game today), def. Redlands 12-2, def. Cal Lutheran 6-3, def La Verne 12-3



6. UT Dallas – 23-9 – Not a great pitching team, but it's tough to ignore this UT Dallas team that will easily be the ASC East's #1 seed.  #29 in the country, this team is hitting at the .362 clip, with 37 home runs on the year. Perhaps La Verne or another SCIAC team (or both) deserve this spot over UT Dallas, but with the way the SCIAC teams are beating up on each other it's hard to tell until all of that shakes out. (That's my excuse anyhow). Unlike, Hardin-Simmons, this team has ENOUGH pitching to keep it close until they're ready to out slug you. At this point, unless they win the ASC I don't see them being able to get an at-large birth though; therefore, you'll probably see one or two SCIAC teams ahead of them for the next period.

Key Contributors:
OF Trent Elizondo - .455, 13 2B, 32 RBI, .513 OBP
2B Brett Rosen - .431, 47 R, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 4 SB, .701 SLG %
SS Jake Jackson - .411, 11 2B, 40 RBI, 4 SB
OF Mitch Elliot - .381, 42 R, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 17 SB
C Matt Putman - .380, 9 HR, 40 RBI,
Also, starter Damien Chelakis is 7-2 despite a pretty high ERA and avg. against.
RPs Tim Flasik and Jay Johnson have pitched pretty well and combined for 6 saves

Key Games: took 2 of 3 from Trinity, both from Southwestern (again these have less merit now), swept Hardin-Simmons, swept Louisiana College, swept by Tyler, lost to Marietta 1-8


7. La Verne 15-14 – Pretty mediocre record for a team ranked this high, but they earn this spot because of the way they have played in SCIAC play. Their series against Cal Lutheran could very well decide the SCIAC champion. They took 2 of 3 from Pomona and 2 of 3 from Redlands though and are sitting atop the SCIAC. That said they haven't played all that well outside of conference and I'm not convinced this team could have much success in the West Regional. The team ERA is 5.54 and unlike a team like UTD who is hitting the cover off the ball La Verne is only hitting .317 as a team.

Key Contributors:
OF Brad Licher - .408 avg, 4 HR, .746 SLG %,
OF Kyle Johnson - .391 avg, 24 R, 23 RBI, .482 OBP, 5 SBs
3B Trevor Boucher - .390 avg, 24 RBI
SP Mark Simmons – 6-1, 3.61 ERA, .258 against

Key Games: swept by Chapman, 2 of 3 from Redlands, 2 of 3 from Pomona, L to Ithaca 4-14, L to East Bay 4-11, L to Linfield 7-11, L to George Fox 3-12, L to Pac Lutheran 6-16



8. Pomona Pitzer – 19-9 – So what's the difference between Pomona and the Redlands?  Well Pomona has won both of the games they have played vs. the Redlands going into the DH today. Both teams still have quite a bit of SCIAC games left after today, BUT Pomona's schedule seems easier, giving them the better chance to overtake La Verne if indeed someone manages to do so. Pomona is another team really in need of another starting pitcher, but they do swing it pretty well. The Sagehens aren't out of it yet.

Key Contributors:
OF/SP Zachary Mandleblatt - .446 avg, 12 2B, 6 HR, 38 RBI, .504 OBP, 4 SBs
                                              - 4-1, 4.60 ERA, 2 SV
1B Drew Hedman - .408 avg, 10 HR, 36 RBI, .786 SLG %, .500 OBP
SP Ton Dunlap – 6-1, 3.88 ERA
OF Clayton Leonard - .373 avg

Key Games: Lost 2 of 3 to La Verne, defeated the Redlands twice (2 more today), defeated East Bay 7-6, took 2 of 3 from Cal Lutheran

9. McMurry - 18-14 - This is a team that played great baseball all year until Texas Lutheran swept them.  They rebounded well taking 2 of 3 from a very good UMHB team, but then dropped 2 of 3 to Schreiner, dropping them to 3rd in the ASC West. The guys on the bump had been filthy for most of the year, but are starting to show a little vulnerability now. With a lot of different guys that can swing it though, this McMurry team has the tools to make a run come ASC tournament time.

Key Contributors:
2B Weston Franco - .434, 7 HR, 34 RBI, .707 SLG %
3B Derek David - .373, 35 R, 4 HR, 33 RBI,
1B Brent Vorhees - .365, 38 R, 12 HR, 38 RBI, .730 SLG %
SP Nich Schaffer - 6-0, 3.92 ERA, (including a nice win against Chapman)
SP Cody Curry - 5-2, 3.91 ERA

Key Games: swept by TLU, swept HSU, 2 of 3 from UMHB, lost 2 of 3 to Chapman, lost to UT Tyler 1-3, took 2 of 3 from UT Dallas, lost 5-7 to Marietta (their #4 against Etta's #2)



Others Receiving Votes are: Linfield (14-11), Cal Lutheran (17-9), Mary-Hardin Baylor (16-14), East Bay (14-11), Redlands (20-11) and Louisiana College (20-12)...

Redlands was going to be tied with McMurry at the #9 spot, but after Pomona swept them I don't think they're a ranked team anymore dropping to fourth in the SCIAC. It would probably bump Pomona ahead of a La Verne team that has a tougher remaining schedule. I chose to not rank Cal Lutheran because they dropped 2 of 3 to Pomona and also 2 of three to Oxy and still have both the Redlands and Pomona left. I think the SCIAC champion will be Pomona Pitzer when it's all said and done.

I haven't been able to find the results of the final Linfield/GFU game, but either way Linfield is pretty far back from Pac Lutheran with not that many NWC games remaining and so I couldn't justify putting them in the rankings with them likely out of the hunt.

I didn't rank UMHB because they lost two of three to a McMurry team that I still believe to bet the better of those two teams.  McMurry has better pitching (though neither have a whole lot of depth out of the pen) and I believe McMurry is the better offensive team as well.

Hope you enjoyed this time around!

Some_Guy






       

[Ralph Turner]

The ASC has been updating regularly this season.  (Thanks, Greg!)

It is posted as a pdf file on the baseball page.

[Spence]

Spence, let me think about my opinion of this week's West Region rankings.

I think that we could make a case for:

1)  Chapman
2)  PLU
3)  Texas Lutheran (I will defer to my friends in the NWC.)
4)  GFU
5)  LaVerne(plays Cal Lu on Apr 20-21)
6)  Cal Lu
7)  UT-Dallas
8 ) UMHB

Looking forward to your rankings, Some Guy! 

That all makes pretty good sense. Wouldn't be surprised if in actuality Linfield wasn't better than UT Dallas or UMHB, but not sure how that would ever be proven. Linfield's 14-7 against a strong D-III schedule though, but their losses to Puget Sound are just killers. East Bay's a wildcard as well, but those are probably the only two that aren't included that could realistically be.

[Just_Some_Guy]

Rankings are complete, just a few messages up.  I just post this so it will show a new message as I have just been editing the above message as I add teams, but the list is complete this time! Enjoy! Per usual, discussion is always welcomed/encouraged.

[Spence]

So basically we're looking at the only shot at a Pool C being George Fox (unless TX Lu loses the ASC tournament) and the only real shot at a Pool B being East Bay.

Chapman, ASC, SCIAC, Pac Lu with TX Lu, GFU and East Bay possibilities for non automatics, probably in that order.

Btw, saw your note on McMurry with the pitching breakdown...did you do that for all of everyone's losses? And who is Marietta's #2? I'm hoping you know, because I don't, and I don't think coach Brewer really does either right now. So if you do, email coach Brewer and tell him so we don't lose 16-3 anymore.

[Just_Some_Guy]

Btw, saw your note on McMurry with the pitching breakdown...did you do that for all of everyone's losses? And who is Marietta's #2? I'm hoping you know, because I don't, and I don't think coach Brewer really does either right now. So if you do, email coach Brewer and tell him so we don't lose 16-3 anymore.

I don't recall why I had done that Spence. I usually do not, no.  I believe I was trying to justify the legitimacy of McMurry earlier to someone and stated that they had played that game really close depsite facing Marietta's #2 at the time (Merryman). He actually leads the team in starts and IP now despite having the 4th highest ERA of the four guys with regular starts. Vorhees is actually probably McMurry's #5 with only 5 appearances and 2 starts all year and an ERA over 9.00.

I agree with your assessment in that GFU seems to have a slim chance at a Pool C bid if they win nearly all the remainder of their games. I feel like Texas Lutheran might be a possibility if they lose (but play relatively well and go deep) into the ASC tournament. I don't know much about Pool B bids to know if East Bay is deserving of one (or will). Do you think Pac Lutheran would be seeded behind both TLU and the SCIAC champ?

Some_Guy

[Spence]

I'd have to say Pac Lu will probably be seeded ahead of the SCIAC champ, particularly if it is LaVerne. I don't think the NWC is a bad league. Puget Sound was actually the team I thought might challenge GFU and Linfield and they're in 4th. I have to honestly say I didn't see Pac Lu coming; I missed that one.

If George Fox lost today to Linfield, then they'd be in third place (well, tied in the lost column with the tiebreaker going to Linfield). If they finish third in the NWC, it becomes much more difficult for them to get a Pool C berth.

As for the pitching thing...no big deal. Just would have been interested to see how it broke down for a team like Chapman that never really has to go deep into their staff, and a bit amused by the idea that Marietta has a #2 pitcher. We have a #1, but he's battling arm issues. So our #2 becomes our #1 for now...and it seems to be anyone's guess who that is.

[utilitycat17]

So basically we're looking at the only shot at a Pool C being George Fox (unless TX Lu loses the ASC tournament) and the only real shot at a Pool B being East Bay.

Chapman, ASC, SCIAC, Pac Lu with TX Lu, GFU and East Bay possibilities for non automatics, probably in that order.

Chapman is a pool B team as well.

[Spence]

Yes I know. But there's a better chance that I'll deploy to the moon before the end of the season than there is of Chapman not making the regional. So I just went ahead and put them in.