BB: Regionals (Mid-Atlantic) Kean 2012

[Ralph Turner]

The 2012 Mid-Atlantic Regional will held at First Energy Park, hosted by Kean University.

[Hammer Ball]

My Guess at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Field (number is in-region win% + in-region SOS)

Keystone 1.453   
Kean 1.348
Misericordia 1.337
Rowan 1.267
Alvernia 1.254
Haverford 1.14
Messiah 1.024
Drew 1.02
         
AT LARGE         
AUTOMATIC         

[OshDude]

My Guess at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Field (number is in-region win% + in-region SOS)

Keystone 1.453   
Kean 1.348
Misericordia 1.337
Rowan 1.267
Alvernia 1.254
Haverford 1.14
Messiah 1.024
Drew 1.02
         
AT LARGE         
AUTOMATIC

If Miseri is Pool a C, you predict DeSales will go elsewhere?

[Ralph Turner]

My Guess at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Field (number is in-region win% + in-region SOS)

Keystone 1.453   
Kean 1.348
Misericordia 1.337
Rowan 1.267
Alvernia 1.254
Haverford 1.14
Messiah 1.024
Drew 1.02
         
AT LARGE         
AUTOMATIC

Hammerball, do you mind going thru those teams in the MId-Atlantic region and looking at their records versus regionally ranked teams?  Thanking you in advance for all of us Pool C fans, +1!   

[Hammer Ball]

My Guess at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Field (number is in-region win% + in-region SOS)

Keystone 1.453   
Kean 1.348
Misericordia 1.337
Rowan 1.267
Alvernia 1.254
Haverford 1.14
Messiah 1.024
Drew 1.02
         
AT LARGE         
AUTOMATIC

If Miseri is Pool a C, you predict DeSales will go elsewhere?

I goofed Miz should be in green. I have them beating DeSales Saturday.

[Hammer Ball]

My Guess at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Field (number is in-region win% + in-region SOS)

Keystone 1.453   
Kean 1.348
Misericordia 1.337
Rowan 1.267
Alvernia 1.254
Haverford 1.14
Messiah 1.024
Drew 1.02
         
AT LARGE         
AUTOMATIC

Hammerball, do you mind going thru those teams in the MId-Atlantic region and looking at their records versus regionally ranked teams?  Thanking you in advance for all of us Pool C fans, +1!   

As of the 5/3 Rankings (I am out of pocket til 5/14 so this is it til the brackets come out) I did not include MSU as I figure 11 loses will do them in, if they are not just eliminated by the committee like they were by the NJAC Commissioners
Miz 4-2 (in case they lose to DeSales)
Alv 2-3-1
Row 5-7
Ram 8-9

[Ralph Turner]

My Guess at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Field (number is in-region win% + in-region SOS)

Keystone 1.453   
Kean 1.348
Misericordia 1.337
Rowan 1.267
Alvernia 1.254
Haverford 1.14
Messiah 1.024
Drew 1.02
         
AT LARGE         
AUTOMATIC

Hammerball, do you mind going thru those teams in the MId-Atlantic region and looking at their records versus regionally ranked teams?  Thanking you in advance for all of us Pool C fans, +1!   

As of the 5/3 Rankings (I am out of pocket til 5/14 so this is it til the brackets come out) I did not include MSU as I figure 11 loses will do them in, if they are not just eliminated by the committee like they were by the NJAC Commissioners
Miz 4-2 (in case they lose to DeSales)
Alv 2-3-1
Row 5-7
Ram 8-9

Good job. That 4-2 in-region record versus regionally ranked locks in Misericordia as a #3 seed, IMHO, as a Pool C bid.

[Hammer Ball]

My Guess at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Field (number is in-region win% + in-region SOS)

Keystone 1.453   
Kean 1.348
Misericordia 1.337
Rowan 1.267
Alvernia 1.254
Haverford 1.14
Messiah 1.024
Drew 1.02
         
AT LARGE         
AUTOMATIC

Hammerball, do you mind going thru those teams in the MId-Atlantic region and looking at their records versus regionally ranked teams?  Thanking you in advance for all of us Pool C fans, +1!   

As of the 5/3 Rankings (I am out of pocket til 5/14 so this is it til the brackets come out) I did not include MSU as I figure 11 loses will do them in, if they are not just eliminated by the committee like they were by the NJAC Commissioners
Miz 4-2 (in case they lose to DeSales)
Alv 2-3-1
Row 5-7
Ram 8-9

Good job. That 4-2 in-region record versus regionally ranked locks in Misericordia as a #3 seed, IMHO, as a Pool C bid.

The records i provided were against all opponents ranked as of 5/3.

[BillS]

Do you think there is any chance for Moravian to get a Pool C bid this year? They played some pretty tough competition compared to last year. Beat Heidelberg early on and lost a 2-run game to them. Beat Haverford. Lost to Miseracordia by one run in extra innings and spanked DeSales. Lost to Montclaire St. by one with mostly freshman on the field. Had some pretty good NCAA stats as a team. The whole process is very confusing to me. Is there a set number of teams that get bids from each region or are your pool C predictions based on teams you expect to get bids from other regions in addition to the info from the Mid-Atlantic teams? Would have been nice to see how Moravian fared during those weekday games with the weekend pitching staff. This is really interesting stuff. Thanks for your insight.

[Ralph Turner]

Welcome to the boards, BillS.

BillS, I don't think that any team that has not been ranked in the first 3 Regional Rankings will get a Pool C bid this year.  (Third Regional Ranking comes out this afternoon.)

Second (and first) Regional Rankings

[Ralph Turner]

Do you think there is any chance for Moravian to get a Pool C bid this year? They played some pretty tough competition compared to last year. Beat Heidelberg early on and lost a 2-run game to them. Beat Haverford. Lost to Miseracordia by one run in extra innings and spanked DeSales. Lost to Montclaire St. by one with mostly freshman on the field. Had some pretty good NCAA stats as a team. The whole process is very confusing to me. Is there a set number of teams that get bids from each region or are your pool C predictions based on teams you expect to get bids from other regions in addition to the info from the Mid-Atlantic teams? Would have been nice to see how Moravian fared during those weekday games with the weekend pitching staff. This is really interesting stuff. Thanks for your insight.

FAQ on the playoffs.

[BillS]

Bowdoin? Thought for sure that they would be out. Doesn't make sense that a team like Moravain (and probably several other good teams) gets passed over and Bowdoin goes to a regional when they have a team BA of .268 and Moravian is .337. Moravian played one more game and had 150 more hits as a team. Moravian scored 148 more runs. Moravian had 40 more doubles, had 225 more AB's and struck out 30 fewer times. Don't get me wrong, I applaud Bowdoin for making the regional and wish them luck. I like the underdog. However, I don't understand the logic. There must be a ton of factors that go into the decision making process. Maybe it's more logistics than logic or statistics when it comes down to the last few teams? Distance? No MId-Atlantic teams ever go to CT? Maybe I'm just missing something obvious. Being a newby to this I would appreciate any insight that helps me better understand. Good luck to all teams in your regionals.

[Hammer Ball]

BillS,

There are many on this board far more knowledgable than me, but while the stats you provide are impressive, they are not considered by the NCAA.  They consider the following:

From the Handbook

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).

●● Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
●● Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
-- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
-- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
See Appendix C on page 91 for explanation of OWP and OOWP calculations.

●● In-region head-to-head competition.
●● In-region results versus common regional opponents.
●● In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.
-- Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at any time of the rankings/selection process.
●● Conference postseason contests are included.

[Ralph Turner]

Bowdoin? Thought for sure that they would be out. Doesn't make sense that a team like Moravain (and probably several other good teams) gets passed over and Bowdoin goes to a regional when they have a team BA of .268 and Moravian is .337. Moravian played one more game and had 150 more hits as a team. Moravian scored 148 more runs. Moravian had 40 more doubles, had 225 more AB's and struck out 30 fewer times. Don't get me wrong, I applaud Bowdoin for making the regional and wish them luck. I like the underdog. However, I don't understand the logic. There must be a ton of factors that go into the decision making process. Maybe it's more logistics than logic or statistics when it comes down to the last few teams? Distance? No MId-Atlantic teams ever go to CT? Maybe I'm just missing something obvious. Being a newby to this I would appreciate any insight that helps me better understand. Good luck to all teams in your regionals.

BillS,

Here is the FAQ to the playoffs.

http://www.d3baseball.com/interactive/faq/ncaaTournament

The key is to look at the criteria in the Handbook and how teams are ranked.

http://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2012/2012-baseball-championships-manual.pdf

and the criteria...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7725.11

Also, read the front page article on how we did a mock selection.

http://www.d3baseball.com/notables/2012/05/2012-playoff-projections

[Ralph Turner]

Bowdoin? Thought for sure that they would be out. Doesn't make sense that a team like Moravain (and probably several other good teams) gets passed over and Bowdoin goes to a regional when they have a team BA of .268 and Moravian is .337. Moravian played one more game and had 150 more hits as a team. Moravian scored 148 more runs. Moravian had 40 more doubles, had 225 more AB's and struck out 30 fewer times. Don't get me wrong, I applaud Bowdoin for making the regional and wish them luck. I like the underdog. However, I don't understand the logic. There must be a ton of factors that go into the decision making process. Maybe it's more logistics than logic or statistics when it comes down to the last few teams? Distance? No MId-Atlantic teams ever go to CT? Maybe I'm just missing something obvious. Being a newby to this I would appreciate any insight that helps me better understand. Good luck to all teams in your regionals.

Mid-Atlantic teams don't go to CT because there are too many teams in New England that need to be bussed to the Regionals.  Mid-Atlantic teams can be sent to places like CNU or Kean or Marietta.

BillS, I have stricken thru the comments that you make that are not criteria for the playoffs.