Pool C -- 2013

[02 Warhawk]

So it's safe to say that Bethel probably can't count on St. John's as a regional win? Assuming Bethel takes care of the Johnnies? 

You're right about Whitewater becoming a huge Wash U fan now!! Hopefully whoever loses between UWP and UWO doesn't fall off the rankings.

I don't know if anything is safe to say.  I think St. Thomas gets in to the regional rankings after beating Concordia giving them the best win of any of the 2 loss teams.  This in turn also gives St. John's a regionally ranked win that will be counted in the secret rankings?

Seems like Bethel can only count on a receiving a regional win against St. John's or St. thomas...but not both. If Concordia can knocks off UST (which is very possible), then Wartburg might be their only hope for a second regional win.

things just got a helluva lot interesting for the top spot in the West.

Yep, a 3 loss SJU is gone from the rankings, regardless of how UST v. Cobbers shakes out. If UST were to beat Concordia, there's a slight chance Concordia could stay in the rankings. They'd have to have a competitive loss, IMO. Then it's a question of how the committee stacks up all the two loss teams (Redlands, SJU, UST, Concordia, Wartburg, etc.)

For Whitewater's sake, I think you should be cheering for UWP. If UWO loses they could still stay in, UWP's SOS will be a big millstone to overcome.

I have a feeling when it's all said and done. Bethel and UWW will be sitting with only two regional wins.

Since UWO and UWP play on the last week, we'll never now what the loser of that game will be regionally ranked. We don't get the regional rankings after the final week....because the tournament brackets released, right? If I'm looking at it correctly, we only get one more regional rankings, next week.

[jknezek]

With the demise of "once ranked always ranked" two will be pretty good. Conferences are going to be hard pressed to have more than 2 RR teams at in the final rankings. A few might have a third, but most won't. So if you got one RRO from conference and one from your OOC schedule, that's going to be pretty favorable.

[hazzben]

I have a feeling when it's all said and done. Bethel and UWW will be sitting with only two regional wins.

Since UWO and UWP play on the last week, we'll never now what the loser of that game will be regionally ranked. We don't get the regional rankings after the final week....because the tournament brackets released, right? If I'm looking at it correctly, we only get one more regional rankings, next week.

Correct, we'll only see next Wednesday's rankings. The final ones are secret.

But we'll get some more clarity this week. How the UST game shakes out and how the committee responds will give us some clues. If Pacific wins it gets interesting. And if Wash U beats Chicago I think we can assume they'll stay ranked and remain a boost for UWW. If they loose, we should assume they fall out, as they'd have 3 losses.

Going into this weekend, I'd lean towards both UWW and Bethel having two. In which case, I don't see how UWW doesn't remain #1 in the West. Although I haven't looked at how their SOS or Bethel's will be affected by the remaining games.

[smedindy]

Well, let me just say that this will be an INTERESTING week in Pool C and playoff projection land. Sigh.

I think it's very safe to say that no "B" will cross into "C" land and unless there's a shock in the RR's, or something nuts happens it'll probably be Framingham, Wesley and Millsaps. as a "B".

Franklin lost to Bluffton this week so insanity can happen.

My gut is that the "C"s will be JCU (or Mt. Union, heck, JCU looked that good), the WIAC runner up, Illinois Wesleyan, PLU (if they beat Whitworth), and dealer's choice from Wabash, Thomas More or Illinois College. Perhaps St. Thomas or St. John's could horn in if the West committee ranks them ahead of Illinois College.

[hazzben]

Well, let me just say that this will be an INTERESTING week in Pool C and playoff projection land. Sigh.

I think it's very safe to say that no "B" will cross into "C" land and unless there's a shock in the RR's, or something nuts happens it'll probably be Framingham, Wesley and Millsaps. as a "B".

Franklin lost to Bluffton this week so insanity can happen.

My gut is that the "C"s will be JCU (or Mt. Union, heck, JCU looked that good), the WIAC runner up, Illinois Wesleyan, PLU (if they beat Whitworth), and dealer's choice from Wabash, Thomas More or Illinois College. Perhaps St. Thomas or St. John's could horn in if the West committee ranks them ahead of Illinois College.

I'd be shocked if Illinois College remains ranked in the West. They were already sitting at #8 as an unbeaten. Given a weak SOS, no results against RRO and the fact they won't even play St. Norberts, I think they are in trouble in the rankings.

For SJU to have a chance, they'll have to beat Bethel. If UST gets ranked, it would give them 2 wins against RRO's. I'd assume they get in over UST in this scenario. If SJU loses, UST has a sliver of hope. But have to hope UWP drops completely out, etc.

As we saw today, there's a whole lot more football left to be played. I'm predicting we have one of our crazier final weeks of the season (even as the West Coast games are still going on)

[HSCTiger74]

I have a feeling when it's all said and done. Bethel and UWW will be sitting with only two regional wins.

Since UWO and UWP play on the last week, we'll never now what the loser of that game will be regionally ranked. We don't get the regional rankings after the final week....because the tournament brackets released, right? If I'm looking at it correctly, we only get one more regional rankings, next week.

Correct, we'll only see next Wednesday's rankings. The final ones are secret.

But we'll get some more clarity this week. How the UST game shakes out and how the committee responds will give us some clues. If Pacific wins it gets interesting. And if Wash U beats Chicago I think we can assume they'll stay ranked and remain a boost for UWW. If they loose, we should assume they fall out, as they'd have 3 losses.

Going into this weekend, I'd lean towards both UWW and Bethel having two. In which case, I don't see how UWW doesn't remain #1 in the West. Although I haven't looked at how their SOS or Bethel's will be affected by the remaining games.

Whenever I read this in a post my first thought is "Oh yeah, the Dean Wormer Rankings".     

[Mr. Ypsi]

I have a feeling when it's all said and done. Bethel and UWW will be sitting with only two regional wins.

Since UWO and UWP play on the last week, we'll never now what the loser of that game will be regionally ranked. We don't get the regional rankings after the final week....because the tournament brackets released, right? If I'm looking at it correctly, we only get one more regional rankings, next week.

Correct, we'll only see next Wednesday's rankings. The final ones are secret.

But we'll get some more clarity this week. How the UST game shakes out and how the committee responds will give us some clues. If Pacific wins it gets interesting. And if Wash U beats Chicago I think we can assume they'll stay ranked and remain a boost for UWW. If they loose, we should assume they fall out, as they'd have 3 losses.

Going into this weekend, I'd lean towards both UWW and Bethel having two. In which case, I don't see how UWW doesn't remain #1 in the West. Although I haven't looked at how their SOS or Bethel's will be affected by the remaining games.

Whenever I read this in a post my first thought is "Oh yeah, the Dean Wormer Rankings".     

What is truly annoying is that with no 'once ranked, always ranked', those secret final rankings are the ONLY ones that matter.  Nice transparency, NCAA!

[bleedpurple]

Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!

I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?

[wally_wabash]

Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!

I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?

Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years.  I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.

Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will.  I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.   

To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope.  The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat).  Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss.  So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week. 

[MonroviaCat]

Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!

I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?

Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years.  I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.

Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will.  I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.   

To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope.  The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat).  Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss.  So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.

Gonna get interesting with 4 of the 10 losing today.....

[wally_wabash]

Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!

I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?

Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years.  I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.

Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will.  I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.   

To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope.  The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat).  Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss.  So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.

Gonna get interesting with 4 of the 10 losing today.....

How they get ordered could be interesting, but really, I think the 10 you saw on Wednesday are going to be the same 10 you see this week.   Those 10 have pretty seriously lapped the field in the North region.  Those losses aren't going to knock anybody out of the rankings.  With the possible exception that a second MIAA team makes a brief cameo before picking up a 3rd loss next week. 

[MonroviaCat]

Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!

I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?

Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years.  I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.

Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will.  I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.   

To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope.  The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat).  Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss.  So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.

Gonna get interesting with 4 of the 10 losing today.....

How they get ordered could be interesting, but really, I think the 10 you saw on Wednesday are going to be the same 10 you see this week.   Those 10 have pretty seriously lapped the field in the North region.  Those losses aren't going to knock anybody out of the rankings.  With the possible exception that a second MIAA team makes a brief cameo before picking up a 3rd loss next week.

yes--good point.  The West Regional Rankings could be very interesting though----3 MIAC teams with 2 losses, 2 WIAC teams with 1 loss but with low SOS.......it will mostly work itself out by the end but for this week it could be a big mess!

[smedindy]

I agree with Wally - the only change of teams in the RRs for the North will be Albion instead of Hope when all is said and done. Unless, unless, B-W beats Heidelberg. That could happen. 

[bleedpurple]

Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!

I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?

Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years.  I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.

Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will.  I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.   

To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope.  The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat).  Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss.  So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.

Not suggesting it would matter, was just curious. Didn't realize the north was quite so shallow that the 9th ranked team would lose by 6 touchdowns and stay ranked.  But I don't follow all this criteria stuff all that closely. I do love reading this board and thanks all of you who put the work in to sort it out for us. 

Now another question or two to REALLY show my ignorance. 

I have looked at the criteria for pool C. And I know that records against RRO is one of them.  My question is:  what are the criteria for Regional Rankings? More specifically, does it have anything to do with RRO? I"m guessing it can't because there's no way of knowing how another region will rank teams. For example, the committee for the West couldn't have known that Wash U would be ranked when they ranked UW-W #1, right? 

[hazzben]

I have looked at the criteria for pool C. And I know that records against RRO is one of them.  My question is:  what are the criteria for Regional Rankings? More specifically, does it have anything to do with RRO? I"m guessing it can't because there's no way of knowing how another region will rank teams. For example, the committee for the West couldn't have known that Wash U would be ranked when they ranked UW-W #1, right?

RRO is a criteria for Regional Rankings. The first ranking is especially tricky, since for example, the West Com had no idea if Wash U would get ranked. The final RR can be adjusted by the national committee I believe. The RRO is certainly adjusted, especially this year since they just dropped the once-ranked-always-ranked criteria.