Pool C 2022

[kiko]

Crazy thing about the Mt Union finish is that apparantly, in a 3 way tie the tiebreaker is a secret vote among the head coaches. In that case they could easily have voted in JCU or BW so the OAC would get 2 as Mt Union would have been a pool C lock. In the MWC the tiebreaker among Lake Forest, Ripon and Monmouth is which team has led for the most quarters of games during the season. Looks like Lake Forest will get the AQ there. Crazy stuff these tiebreakers.

Had they not gotten a fortuitous bounce today, Mount would have had a sub-.500 SOS and a 1-1 vRRO.  There is zero question in my mind they would have been selected, but it would have been based on factors outside the official criteria.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The final profiles for the potential at large teams (with final records and SOS post Sat) are:


UWLX (Region 6 #5) 9-1 (1-1).556 (Loss V Region 6 #4, presumed win over Region 6 #6)
Bethel (Region 6 #2)8-2 (1-2).612 (Win vs Region 6 #2, Loss @ Region 6 #6, Loss at Region 6 #2)
Wheaton (Region 5 #3) 8-2 (1-2) .551 (Loss @ Region 3 #1, @ Region 5#1, Win over Region 5 #7)
Albion (Region 4 #2) 9-1 (0-1) .544 ( loss @ Region 4 #3)
JHU (Region 2 #5) 9-1 (0-1) .505 (Loss @ Region 2 #2)
Utica (Region 2 #6) 9-1 (0-1) .528 (Loss vs Region 2 #1)
HSU (Region 3 #5) 8-1 (1-1) .485 (win at Region 6 #6, Loss to Region 3 #3)
John Carroll (Region 4 #6) 8-2 (1-1) .540 (Loss @ Region 4 #1, Win vs Region 4 #7)

Albion will slide from #2 in Region 4, Bethel will slide from #2 in Region 6, probably getting passed by UWL as #3 and St Johns moves up to #2. Only other spot is JHU at #5, but I suspect Cortland and Ithaca switch spots and Susquehanna moves up to #1 with Ithaca ahead of Cortland at #2/3 or 3/4 depending on the Carnegie Mellon/CWRU game tonight, but if JHU moves up a spot that could marginally help their resume. All others held serve.

There is some work at the bottom of some of the regions that could affect the RR results of playoff and at large teams. the 8 team Region 3 sorted itself with Belhaven losing. Region 4 could lose BW which hurts JCU and the inclusion of someone else is unknown. Lake Forest won the AQ (I believe) beating Chicago so they could reappear in the 5 at another teams expense (all of whom won), The 6 has to decide what to do with Platteville and if Gustavus sneaks in Bethel gets an RRO win, bolstering their Pool C case.

Region 4 doesn't really have many option to fill out the rankings. There are only 10 teams with 3 or fewer losses. Six of them are the top 6 and should stay there in some order. The choice including all 3 loss teams in the region is: current #7 BW (7-3, 0-3 vRRO, .546 SoS), Denison (8-2, 0-1 vRRO, .440 SoS), Trine (7-3, 0-2 vRRO, .572 SoS), and Wabash (7-3, 0-2 vRRO), .536 SoS)
Honestly, if I'm the region 4 committee and want to try to get a pool C team I stick Trine in at #7 to give Albion a RRO win. That would give Albion a (9-1, 1-1 vRRO, .544 SoS) resume which is pretty strong.

[Ron Boerger]

The final profiles for the potential at large teams (with final records and SOS post Sat) are:

[...]

There is some work at the bottom of some of the regions that could affect the RR results of playoff and at large teams. the 8 team Region 3 sorted itself with Belhaven losing. Region 4 could lose BW which hurts JCU and the inclusion of someone else is unknown. Lake Forest won the AQ (I believe) beating Chicago so they could reappear in the 5 at another teams expense (all of whom won), The 6 has to decide what to do with Platteville and if Gustavus sneaks in Bethel gets an RRO win, bolstering their Pool C case.

It *really* sorted itself out because Birmingham-Southern managed to do everything but lay a goose egg in losing 20-3 at Rhodes.  So remember, regional committees, trying to game the system is the kiss of death for your teams!

[Hawks88]

So who moves into #7 in R3 with both BSC and Belhaven losing today? Shenandoah? HPU?

[USee]

Almost certainly move Howard Payne in as that gives HSU another RRO Win and all but assures them as a lock for pool C.

I'll be interested if the committee takes into account the MIAC championship game, which effectively gives Bethel a .040 pt lift or more in SOS by playing StJ again. Even without it they would have the highest SOS in the field of Pool C candidates so it likely doesn't matter. The bottom of these regional rankings are really going to make or break a few teams chances.

I think the last spot comes down to Albion vs JHU but who knows. I think it will be: UWL, Bethel, Wheaton, HSU, and then JHU or Albion. I think Albion sneaks in if Trine gets ranked in the final RR.

[Cowboy2]

So who moves into #7 in R3 with both BSC and Belhaven losing today? Shenandoah? HPU?

By basics I'd say SHENANDOAH (8-2)...loss respectable games to RMC (10-0) and Bridgewater (9-1).

HPU (7-3) has one less win. That close game to George Fox (8-2) hurts. Heck if GF didn't lose a 1 point game to PLU they would be (9-1) only losing to Linfield - R6 #1 possibly.

HPU had HSU and UMHB beat and lost both. If they finish all three of those games they're 10-0 and possibly #1 in R3. But instead they're 7-8-9-10 discussion. BSC/Berry/HPU are all 7-3 (0-2)

Based on criteria the look at W/L record the RRO... so basically HPU is  7-3 (0-2) vs SHENANDOAH who  is 8-2 (0-2).

[smedindy]

Congrats to those who stepped up their schedule this year and were rewarded. I gave Wheaton longer odds because I didn't know if this committee would reward them for playing Trinity instead of beating up on MIAA and MWC schools like in the past. I like the direction this is taking.

I see on twitter a lot of grousing by JHU people. But...Albion has a bigger gripe with their SOS. And Utica had better criteria numbers than JHU. (Say what you will about that.)

[Ralph Turner]

Congrats to those who stepped up their schedule this year and were rewarded. I gave Wheaton longer odds because I didn't know if this committee would reward them for playing Trinity instead of beating up on MIAA and MWC schools like in the past. I like the direction this is taking.

I see on twitter a lot of grousing by JHU people. But...Albion has a bigger gripe with their SOS. And Utica had better criteria numbers than JHU. (Say what you will about that.)

How many members will JHU's conference have next year? (I don't remember all of the details of the Landmark move.)

[smedindy]

JHU, Ursinus, Muhlenberg, F&M, Dickinson, McDaniel, Gettysburg. That's what I see.

[Ralph Turner]

JHU, Ursinus, Muhlenberg, F&M, Dickinson, McDaniel, Gettysburg. That's what I see.

Thanks. That gives JHU 4 OOC games to boost their SOS!

[Inkblot]

JHU, Ursinus, Muhlenberg, F&M, Dickinson, McDaniel, Gettysburg. That's what I see.

Thanks. That gives JHU 4 OOC games to boost their SOS!

Two of those will be NJAC teams, due to a scheduling alliance.

[HOPEful]

As a fan of the MIAA, I can fully empathize with this sentiment. Over in the Region 4 Fan Poll, I was the lone voter this week to vote JCU as the number 2 team in the region. After watching both Albion and Alma, I believe both would lose to JCU on a neutral field, although I think Albion v. JCU would be a good game. I also expect Alma to get crushed this weekend by Albion...

Between this and the Mount Union/BW game, I'm not sure I know anything D3 football anymore

[Ron Boerger]

Congrats to those who stepped up their schedule this year and were rewarded. I gave Wheaton longer odds because I didn't know if this committee would reward them for playing Trinity instead of beating up on MIAA and MWC schools like in the past. I like the direction this is taking.

One of the things the guys said on this morning podcast is that unfortunately there is no guarantee this *is* a direction the national committee will continue to take due to the turnover in membership and the lack of anything in the criteria saying that establishing this as being something teams will be rewarded for.  Certainly teams *should* be rewarded for such, and I'm glad Wheaton's blocked PAT OT loss to Trinity did not cost them a chance at the playoffs.

[Ralph Turner]

Pool C summary for 2022 Playoffs:

Utica 17, at #11 Susquehanna 10
at #6 Trinity TX 14, #9 HSU 7
at #12 Wartburg 14, #7 UW-Lacrosse 6
#13 Bethel 34, at #15 Wheaton 32

at #2 UMU 45, Utica 7
#13 Bethel 30, at #5 Linfield 13

at 3 UMHB 41, #13 Bethel 28

Final record for Pool C teams, 3-5

[Cowboy2]

Pool C summary for 2022 Playoffs:

Utica 17, at #11 Susquehanna 10
at #6 Trinity TX 14, #9 HSU 7
at #12 Wartburg 14, #7 UW-Lacrosse 6
#13 Bethel 34, at #15 Wheaton 32

at #2 UMU 45, Utica 7
#13 Bethel 30, at #5 Linfield 13

at 3 UMHB 41, #13 Bethel 28

Final record for Pool C teams, 3-5

Considering there was 3 of the 5 in one quad, and two of them met right out of the gates, 3-5 doesn't look too bad.