NPI bubble

[BTXCru18]

So, did some quick calculations and it's not hard to find best/worst case scenarios using NPI. If you click on the ranking number, a pop-up shows you the data for each team. A team's NPI is the average of their "net NPI" scores.

You can then take the "loss value" and "win value" for each team left on a schedule to calculate a worst case and best case. Anything over 10 wins also allows teams to drop their worst NPI.

Now, we can't predict for conference tournaments which most have and those matches will change things, but there's enough to be able to see that some of the top teams from strong conferences (Tufts, Wesleyan, Williams, Emory, Brandeis) have essentially guaranteed an at-large bid for themselves. Teams like Augsburg and Lake Forest haven't but in reality, they will be in.

If anyone is particularly interested in best/worst case numbers for teams, post here and I'll run them.

Curious about Mary Hardin-Baylor. Could you calculate differences of winning out remaining conference schedule + differences of a W, L or D vs. Trinity?

[BigSoccerFan]

Rowan, Montclair and WP please.  Curious about the NJAC

[kansas hokie]

I will do MHB, Rowan, Montclair, and WP after new NPI is out on Monday, it will mean more after this weekend's games.

For MHB...they are the strong, strong favorite to win ASC auto-bid. If they win out in the regular season (including Trinity) then lose in conference final to E TX baptist (best case), they would likely be just outside the bubble for an at-large bid as it looks now. If they don't beat Trinity, it's auto-bid or nothing.

For NJAC, Montclair looks like they could lose conference tourney and still get in, Rowan may need to win conference tourney, an WP definitely has to win conference tourney to make NCAA.

I'll do the data scenarios after new NPI on Monday.