NPI bubble

[BTXCru18]

So, did some quick calculations and it's not hard to find best/worst case scenarios using NPI. If you click on the ranking number, a pop-up shows you the data for each team. A team's NPI is the average of their "net NPI" scores.

You can then take the "loss value" and "win value" for each team left on a schedule to calculate a worst case and best case. Anything over 10 wins also allows teams to drop their worst NPI.

Now, we can't predict for conference tournaments which most have and those matches will change things, but there's enough to be able to see that some of the top teams from strong conferences (Tufts, Wesleyan, Williams, Emory, Brandeis) have essentially guaranteed an at-large bid for themselves. Teams like Augsburg and Lake Forest haven't but in reality, they will be in.

If anyone is particularly interested in best/worst case numbers for teams, post here and I'll run them.

Curious about Mary Hardin-Baylor. Could you calculate differences of winning out remaining conference schedule + differences of a W, L or D vs. Trinity?

[BigSoccerFan]

Rowan, Montclair and WP please.  Curious about the NJAC

[kansas hokie]

I will do MHB, Rowan, Montclair, and WP after new NPI is out on Monday, it will mean more after this weekend's games.

For MHB...they are the strong, strong favorite to win ASC auto-bid. If they win out in the regular season (including Trinity) then lose in conference final to E TX baptist (best case), they would likely be just outside the bubble for an at-large bid as it looks now. If they don't beat Trinity, it's auto-bid or nothing.

For NJAC, Montclair looks like they could lose conference tourney and still get in, Rowan may need to win conference tourney, an WP definitely has to win conference tourney to make NCAA.

I'll do the data scenarios after new NPI on Monday.

[kansas hokie]

New NPI out - https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46277?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit

Expanding the bar to include 8...last 8 in:

Catholic (30; 55.657)
Wash & Lee
Macalester
Bridgewater
Buffalo St.
Vassar
Plattsburgh St.
Babson (43; 54.851)

Last 8 out:

Bates (44; 54.84)
Carnegie Mellon
Rowan
Skidmore
Haverford
Middlebury
UW-Stevens Point
Ohio Northern (52; 54.684)

You will see that the difference in who is "last ones out" is miniscule (.18 NPI points). Basically, this list are all teams that need to win at this point, especially if they have a conference tournament that will give them a loss (and need an at-large).

NPI number for an at-large bid will likely be right around 55 in the end.

[Kuiper]

Wanted to offer some comparative data from 2024 that explains the numbers today

In 2024, the lowest non-AQ was Buffalo State at 33.  There were 12 AQs in the top 33, with 21 non-AQ teams getting in the tournament.

As of 10/19/25, there are 16 different conferences with teams in the top 33. So, if every one of those 16 conferences continued to have an AQ in the top 33, then the non-AQ teams would go down to #37 (assuming we have the same number of conference AQs this year).

Of course, there will likely be changes between now and the final NPI before selection (which is the only one that matters) that will change the number of conferences with teams in the top 33.  It will likely go down, but there are also 4 conferences with teams ranked 34-37 that could jump up into the top 33 with good results the rest of the season and in their conference tournaments, so it could go up too, which would push the minimum ranking number higher.  Just wanted to offer this perspective though.

[kansas hokie]

It's a valuable perspective for sure. What I experienced last year was a group of upsets in conference tournaments that moved the cut-line up to 33 from near 40 as the last weekend started. So, while we can easily find who would be in/out right now that's based on no upsets from 1 bid conferences.

Here's the current conference multi-bid breakdown:

NESCAC - 6 (down from 9 last NPI)
ODAC - 5
UAA - 4
MIAC - 4
Liberty League - 3
SUNYAC - 3
Landmark - 2
NCAC - 2
NJAC - 2
SAA - 2

I confirmed there's 21 at-large bids.

Also messed up in my last post by double counting NCAC so move the cutline up one. Babson is now out as of today.

[laker4141]

Astounding where some teams are ranked by NPI after playing an extremely weak schedule. A lot to still be sorted out of course but curious to see how this will play out once the bracket comes out.

[kansas hokie]

Yes, it's a mix each year. Those with weak schedules have no margin for error, they have to win and win a lot. That's where the 10 win threshold helps drop those really weak wins and some teams with harder schedules don't get that benefit. Still, there's teams with multiple losses and/or ties that are still in the mix for at-large due to harder schedules.

In the past system, the selection committee balanced the same level of teams and schedule mix and picked. Now, it's a mathematical algorithm that we get to see each week. Pros/cons to each way.

[Freddyfud]

Well spotted NPI index @kansas hokie.  And you can dump it into a spreadsheet!

The NPI win and loss values as well as the quality win bonus amounts are dynamic.  So when a team like Macalester jumps 20 places week over week mostly due to its victory at Wartburg, it affects all of Macalaster's previous opponents.  Like #2 Augsberg who tied Bethel this week but had a little overall NPI change mostly due to a 1.5 point week over week increase in its earlier win vs. Macalaster.

At this point in the season maybe you could assume little or no volatility.  But as you point out the margin for in or out is tiny.  Either way you are brave for listing only 6 based on the NESCAC Protection Index.

[kansas hokie]

NESCAC Protection Index...ha ha, that's a good one. I'd definitely plan for more than 6 NESCAC bids in the end.

The data is easy to dump into a spreadsheet each week and I don't worry as much about the components and focus on net NPI (click on the ranking number for each team and it's there, you can easily export each team's data that way too).

Still some decent volatility out there as some teams cross the 10 win threshold and drop low level wins. This will impact the bubble much more than the top teams.

Look south for NPI moves this week. Chicago and Wash U both play Rochester and Emory. Lots of large win values available for those teams and each have two games. Tufts (#1) has a non-conference game against Emerson where a win won't do much to help their NPI. Wash U and Emory could both be next week's #1 with two wins this weekend. Chicago could move up to 2 or 3 with two wins.

Augsburg / St. Olaf is another huge game, but even a win for Augsburg won't move them to #1. It seems next week is either Tufts, Emory, or Wash U at the top.

[maineman]

Would a win today by Middlebury over Vassar help them very much and conversely what impact would a Vassar loss have on their NPI?

[Kuiper]

Would a win today by Middlebury over Vassar help them very much and conversely what impact would a Vassar loss have on their NPI?

I can't answer that question specifically, but I thought it noteworthy that Vassar and Middlebury are both under the 10 win threshold.  That is holding both of them back due to low NPI opponents dragging down their strength of schedule.

Middlebury is dramatically under the threshold, with only 5 actual wins and 6 NPI wins.  Ideally, they would like to be able to drop the win against low NPI ranked Thomas, but that may be a tall order.  They would have to win out the rest of the season and win two games in the NESCAC tourney just to drop a game.  By then, however, they would have enough QWB points to not need it.  Still, every win would help them.

Vassar is closer to being able to drop a bad win/loss with 7 wins and 8.5 NPI wins, but it has more games left and fewer games to win to get there.  So, I suspect this game will help their strength of schedule regardless of outcome and they will still have a few more chances to be able to drop low-ranked opponents (likely Bard and NYU).

[kansas hokie]

A win for either of them would definitely be a nice bump for their NPI and both could use it and it gets either one win closer to the 10-win threshold. A tie would keep both where they are.

using this week's numbers a win moves Middlebury to 55.331 which would be #33 (exactly where the last at-large bid was last year).

A win for Vassar moves them to 55.469 which would be #32 in this week's ranking.

Ties and both probably drop a slight bit next week.

It appears that both will be firmly in the at-large bubble conversation, both have many opportunities ahead but yes, this game is important to both, good luck tonight!

[kansas hokie]

fun match middlebury wins 4-2, Vassar drops to around 60 with the loss, last three conference games are critical to get the wins for win bonus and avoid more bad losses on their NPI, Clarkson is must win, likely RPI too.

middlebury moves up to the bubble line with a bubblesque matchup with Bates next and a chance for big points against Williams (win or tie would likely help).

Vassar falling 20 spots in NPI with one loss that was 2-2 in last 8 minutes shows how narrow the gap is in that part of the NPI.

[camosfan]

I think Mid will certainly make the tournament!