FB: Liberty League

[Machiavelli]

So in other news: Hartwick beat Hilbert 52-0. Let that sink in.

[Jonny Utah]

So in other news: Hartwick beat Hilbert 52-0. Let that sink in.

I wasn't involved in this conversation so much but my understanding was that Hilbert (and Buff State) were added because some LL teams were having difficult times finding OCC opponents.  So this is exactly what they wanted. 

Not sure Hilbert will at this pace but who knows. Its a Catholic School with unknown funding so maybe they will be ok in the long run but it is tough for "new" programs to build in the New England/NY area.  Trying to think offhand who these teams are?

Mt. Ida
Alfred State
Anna Maria
Caselton
Morrisville
UNE
Dean
New England College
Husson
University of New England (not to be confused with New England College)
Becker

I guess who am I to judge.  These are colleges who want to play d3football and that's a good thing.  Mt. Union and the OAC had a bunch of duds every year.  Never really stopped MUC. 

[Caz Bombers]

So in other news: Hartwick beat Hilbert 52-0. Let that sink in.

I wasn't involved in this conversation so much but my understanding was that Hilbert (and Buff State) were added because some LL teams were having difficult times finding OCC opponents.  So this is exactly what they wanted. 

Not sure Hilbert will at this pace but who knows. Its a Catholic School with unknown funding so maybe they will be ok in the long run but it is tough for "new" programs to build in the New England/NY area.  Trying to think offhand who these teams are?

Mt. Ida
Alfred State
Anna Maria
Caselton
Morrisville
UNE
Dean
New England College
Husson
University of New England (not to be confused with New England College)
Becker

I guess who am I to judge.  These are colleges who want to play d3football and that's a good thing.  Mt. Union and the OAC had a bunch of duds every year.  Never really stopped MUC.

Mount Ida and Becker both closed quite a while ago now.

[Jonny Utah]

So in other news: Hartwick beat Hilbert 52-0. Let that sink in.

I wasn't involved in this conversation so much but my understanding was that Hilbert (and Buff State) were added because some LL teams were having difficult times finding OCC opponents.  So this is exactly what they wanted. 

Not sure Hilbert will at this pace but who knows. Its a Catholic School with unknown funding so maybe they will be ok in the long run but it is tough for "new" programs to build in the New England/NY area.  Trying to think offhand who these teams are?

Mt. Ida
Alfred State
Anna Maria
Caselton
Morrisville
UNE
Dean
New England College
Husson
University of New England (not to be confused with New England College)
Becker

I guess who am I to judge.  These are colleges who want to play d3football and that's a good thing.  Mt. Union and the OAC had a bunch of duds every year.  Never really stopped MUC.

Mount Ida and Becker both closed quite a while ago now.

I know just showing the fate of the "new" programs that popped up.

[stlawus]

Great finish to the season by SLU. Dominating win against UR, nice to see Lederman rack up 450 yards of offense in his final game.

[XREDDRAGON77]

Ithaca's offensive line was the X factor today! They played with grit and passion! Moved the LOS almost every play! The Dragons didn't play their best...turnovers! But Ithaca made their own breaks and can't take that away from them! Another great chapter in the games history...just hoped the score was a little different!

[ICGrad]

According to the NPI playoff tracker, of the 13 at-large bids available this season, 6 will go to schools with 2 losses.

Ithaca, not even an honorable mention entering this weekend, ended 8-2 and 4 spots out of the final playoff spot. Their two losses were to the eventual LL champion, and to JHU, who entered the weekend with the #1 NPI but lost and ended #7.

Kind of have to wonder where Ithaca lands without Hilbert in the LL this season.

^ oh, and source for the above:

https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/09/2025-d3-football-playoff-npi-tracker/

[IC798891]

Ultimately, Ithaca waited 30 minutes too long to make their QB1 switch.

I don't know if they beat Union if Michael Reed starts that game, all I know is

1st half: 6 drives, 101 yards, 0 points
2nd half: 3 drives, 209 yards, 14 points

Congratulations to Union on making the plays at the end of the season. Patch Flanagan will be the deserving POY and Union's coaching staff should win it as well. Best of luck in the playoffs, especially if you end up playing Cortland at some point

Congratulations to Ithaca for getting the best OOC win for the conference.

[Jonny Utah]

According to the NPI playoff tracker, of the 13 at-large bids available this season, 6 will go to schools with 2 losses.

Ithaca, not even an honorable mention entering this weekend, ended 8-2 and 4 spots out of the final playoff spot. Their two losses were to the eventual LL champion, and to JHU, who entered the weekend with the #1 NPI but lost and ended #7.

Kind of have to wonder where Ithaca lands without Hilbert in the LL this season.

^ oh, and source for the above:

https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/09/2025-d3-football-playoff-npi-tracker/

Now this is actually important. 

Buffalo State in the league doesn't bother me as much because Ithaca might just play them anyway regardless of the conference, but Hilbert is probably a program that Ithaca would say "no thanks" to if Hilbert asked to play.  So that brings us to the question of what other OCC game would have impacted their SOS number.  Curry?  Bridgewater State again?  Endicott, Utica and Brockport are also possibilities but those aren't automatic wins either. 

I tried to throw in some random numbers in to some AI calculators and if Ithaca had scheduled and beaten Curry at home (they played there last year) instead of Hilbert, then Ithaca's NPI would be 65.8 instead of 63.2.  This would have put them at the 11th pool C spot and in the playoffs. 

If someone can confirm this either way please go ahead.  The numbers are the numbers on this one it appears.  I didn't factor in Curry's other game that would have been off the schedule (that Ithaca would have replaced) so not sure if AI factored that in.  It appeared that d3's datacast NPI page uses an embedded sheet that AI can't access easily so many of the calculations were estimates on what was available.

If this is right, than Hilbert 100% impacts the LL's pool C playoff spots.

[unionpalooza]

According to the NPI playoff tracker, of the 13 at-large bids available this season, 6 will go to schools with 2 losses.

Ithaca, not even an honorable mention entering this weekend, ended 8-2 and 4 spots out of the final playoff spot. Their two losses were to the eventual LL champion, and to JHU, who entered the weekend with the #1 NPI but lost and ended #7.

Kind of have to wonder where Ithaca lands without Hilbert in the LL this season.

^ oh, and source for the above:

https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/09/2025-d3-football-playoff-npi-tracker/

Now this is actually important. 

Buffalo State in the league doesn't bother me as much because Ithaca might just play them anyway regardless of the conference, but Hilbert is probably a program that Ithaca would say "no thanks" to if Hilbert asked to play.  So that brings us to the question of what other OCC game would have impacted their SOS number.  Curry?  Bridgewater State again?  Endicott, Utica and Brockport are also possibilities but those aren't automatic wins either. 

I tried to throw in some random numbers in to some AI calculators and if Ithaca had scheduled and beaten Curry at home (they played there last year) instead of Hilbert, then Ithaca's NPI would be 65.8 instead of 63.2.  This would have put them at the 11th pool C spot and in the playoffs. 

If someone can confirm this either way please go ahead.  The numbers are the numbers on this one it appears.  I didn't factor in Curry's other game that would have been off the schedule (that Ithaca would have replaced) so not sure if AI factored that in.  It appeared that d3's datacast NPI page uses an embedded sheet that AI can't access easily so many of the calculations were estimates on what was available.

If this is right, than Hilbert 100% impacts the LL's pool C playoff spots.

You can see the full decomposition of Ithaca on Rossi's site: https://npi-gridiron-6dee1401.base44.app/publicteamdetail?team=Ithaca&season=2025&from=PublicTeamsRecords.

Because wins against both Hilbert and Buff St. would reduce Ithaca's NPI, they are excluded; thus, Ithaca's win/loss record for NPI's purposes is 6.2-2.2.  (The weird decimals are because NPI treat home/away wins/losses differently.)  If you had instead won a game against a team that about average relative to Ithaca's other countable games (NPI of ~55 - think TCNJ), your NPI win/loss record bumps up to 7.2-2.2, which is enough to boost your NPI ~1.2 points. (So, not quite the boost AI suggested.)

That would have been enough to make Ithaca the final Pool C bid this year.

[Jonny Utah]

According to the NPI playoff tracker, of the 13 at-large bids available this season, 6 will go to schools with 2 losses.

Ithaca, not even an honorable mention entering this weekend, ended 8-2 and 4 spots out of the final playoff spot. Their two losses were to the eventual LL champion, and to JHU, who entered the weekend with the #1 NPI but lost and ended #7.

Kind of have to wonder where Ithaca lands without Hilbert in the LL this season.

^ oh, and source for the above:

https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/09/2025-d3-football-playoff-npi-tracker/

Now this is actually important. 

Buffalo State in the league doesn't bother me as much because Ithaca might just play them anyway regardless of the conference, but Hilbert is probably a program that Ithaca would say "no thanks" to if Hilbert asked to play.  So that brings us to the question of what other OCC game would have impacted their SOS number.  Curry?  Bridgewater State again?  Endicott, Utica and Brockport are also possibilities but those aren't automatic wins either. 

I tried to throw in some random numbers in to some AI calculators and if Ithaca had scheduled and beaten Curry at home (they played there last year) instead of Hilbert, then Ithaca's NPI would be 65.8 instead of 63.2.  This would have put them at the 11th pool C spot and in the playoffs. 

If someone can confirm this either way please go ahead.  The numbers are the numbers on this one it appears.  I didn't factor in Curry's other game that would have been off the schedule (that Ithaca would have replaced) so not sure if AI factored that in.  It appeared that d3's datacast NPI page uses an embedded sheet that AI can't access easily so many of the calculations were estimates on what was available.

If this is right, than Hilbert 100% impacts the LL's pool C playoff spots.

You can see the full decomposition of Ithaca on Rossi's site: https://npi-gridiron-6dee1401.base44.app/publicteamdetail?team=Ithaca&season=2025&from=PublicTeamsRecords.

Because wins against both Hilbert and Buff St. would reduce Ithaca's NPI, they are excluded; thus, Ithaca's win/loss record for NPI's purposes is 6.2-2.2.  (The weird decimals are because NPI treat home/away wins/losses differently.)  If you had instead won a game against a team that about average relative to Ithaca's other countable games (NPI of ~55 - think TCNJ), your NPI win/loss record bumps up to 7.2-2.2, which is enough to boost your NPI ~1.2 points. (So, not quite the boost AI suggested.)

That would have been enough to make Ithaca the final Pool C bid this year.

That makes sense thank you.  But imagine Ithaca had two wins (looks like most top 25 teams had more) that don't even help you?  Those wins actually hurt Ithaca (and every other LL team who beat them). 

I guess there are other teams like Ithaca who could say the same.  Even Union played Morrisville State which doesn't count.

And another question.  Does beating Buffalo State by 22 points instead of 50 help Union or hurt them in terms of NPI? (EDIT it hurts them as like you said any NPI in a win less than that teams overall NPI isn't counted.....so does beating them by 200 matter?)

[unionpalooza]

According to the NPI playoff tracker, of the 13 at-large bids available this season, 6 will go to schools with 2 losses.

Ithaca, not even an honorable mention entering this weekend, ended 8-2 and 4 spots out of the final playoff spot. Their two losses were to the eventual LL champion, and to JHU, who entered the weekend with the #1 NPI but lost and ended #7.

Kind of have to wonder where Ithaca lands without Hilbert in the LL this season.

^ oh, and source for the above:

https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/09/2025-d3-football-playoff-npi-tracker/

Now this is actually important. 

Buffalo State in the league doesn't bother me as much because Ithaca might just play them anyway regardless of the conference, but Hilbert is probably a program that Ithaca would say "no thanks" to if Hilbert asked to play.  So that brings us to the question of what other OCC game would have impacted their SOS number.  Curry?  Bridgewater State again?  Endicott, Utica and Brockport are also possibilities but those aren't automatic wins either. 

I tried to throw in some random numbers in to some AI calculators and if Ithaca had scheduled and beaten Curry at home (they played there last year) instead of Hilbert, then Ithaca's NPI would be 65.8 instead of 63.2.  This would have put them at the 11th pool C spot and in the playoffs. 

If someone can confirm this either way please go ahead.  The numbers are the numbers on this one it appears.  I didn't factor in Curry's other game that would have been off the schedule (that Ithaca would have replaced) so not sure if AI factored that in.  It appeared that d3's datacast NPI page uses an embedded sheet that AI can't access easily so many of the calculations were estimates on what was available.

If this is right, than Hilbert 100% impacts the LL's pool C playoff spots.

You can see the full decomposition of Ithaca on Rossi's site: https://npi-gridiron-6dee1401.base44.app/publicteamdetail?team=Ithaca&season=2025&from=PublicTeamsRecords.

Because wins against both Hilbert and Buff St. would reduce Ithaca's NPI, they are excluded; thus, Ithaca's win/loss record for NPI's purposes is 6.2-2.2.  (The weird decimals are because NPI treat home/away wins/losses differently.)  If you had instead won a game against a team that about average relative to Ithaca's other countable games (NPI of ~55 - think TCNJ), your NPI win/loss record bumps up to 7.2-2.2, which is enough to boost your NPI ~1.2 points. (So, not quite the boost AI suggested.)

That would have been enough to make Ithaca the final Pool C bid this year.

That makes sense thank you.  But imagine Ithaca had two wins (looks like most top 25 teams had more) that don't even help you?  Those wins actually hurt Ithaca (and every other LL team who beat them). 

I guess there are other teams like Ithaca who could say the same.  Even Union played Morrisville State which doesn't count.

And another question.  Does beating Buffalo State by 22 points instead of 50 help Union or hurt them in terms of NPI? (EDIT it hurts them as like you said any NPI in a win less than that teams overall NPI isn't counted.....so does beating them by 200 matter?)

Yes, the more bad wins you can't count, the worse it is.  Union's NPI will make it a 10 seed; it's NPI W/L record is 5-2, because it had to drop Buff St., Hilbert and MoVille (because each actually lowers its NPI if included). The more of those games you replace with a decent team, the bigger the NPI boost.

On the Union-Buff St. score, doesn't matter, even if that game were included in Union's NPI.  NPI does not take margin of victory into account - it just looks at win, loss or tie (and whether you were home or away).

[Jonny Utah]

According to the NPI playoff tracker, of the 13 at-large bids available this season, 6 will go to schools with 2 losses.

Ithaca, not even an honorable mention entering this weekend, ended 8-2 and 4 spots out of the final playoff spot. Their two losses were to the eventual LL champion, and to JHU, who entered the weekend with the #1 NPI but lost and ended #7.

Kind of have to wonder where Ithaca lands without Hilbert in the LL this season.

^ oh, and source for the above:

https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/09/2025-d3-football-playoff-npi-tracker/

Now this is actually important. 

Buffalo State in the league doesn't bother me as much because Ithaca might just play them anyway regardless of the conference, but Hilbert is probably a program that Ithaca would say "no thanks" to if Hilbert asked to play.  So that brings us to the question of what other OCC game would have impacted their SOS number.  Curry?  Bridgewater State again?  Endicott, Utica and Brockport are also possibilities but those aren't automatic wins either. 

I tried to throw in some random numbers in to some AI calculators and if Ithaca had scheduled and beaten Curry at home (they played there last year) instead of Hilbert, then Ithaca's NPI would be 65.8 instead of 63.2.  This would have put them at the 11th pool C spot and in the playoffs. 

If someone can confirm this either way please go ahead.  The numbers are the numbers on this one it appears.  I didn't factor in Curry's other game that would have been off the schedule (that Ithaca would have replaced) so not sure if AI factored that in.  It appeared that d3's datacast NPI page uses an embedded sheet that AI can't access easily so many of the calculations were estimates on what was available.

If this is right, than Hilbert 100% impacts the LL's pool C playoff spots.

You can see the full decomposition of Ithaca on Rossi's site: https://npi-gridiron-6dee1401.base44.app/publicteamdetail?team=Ithaca&season=2025&from=PublicTeamsRecords.

Because wins against both Hilbert and Buff St. would reduce Ithaca's NPI, they are excluded; thus, Ithaca's win/loss record for NPI's purposes is 6.2-2.2.  (The weird decimals are because NPI treat home/away wins/losses differently.)  If you had instead won a game against a team that about average relative to Ithaca's other countable games (NPI of ~55 - think TCNJ), your NPI win/loss record bumps up to 7.2-2.2, which is enough to boost your NPI ~1.2 points. (So, not quite the boost AI suggested.)

That would have been enough to make Ithaca the final Pool C bid this year.

That makes sense thank you.  But imagine Ithaca had two wins (looks like most top 25 teams had more) that don't even help you?  Those wins actually hurt Ithaca (and every other LL team who beat them). 

I guess there are other teams like Ithaca who could say the same.  Even Union played Morrisville State which doesn't count.

And another question.  Does beating Buffalo State by 22 points instead of 50 help Union or hurt them in terms of NPI? (EDIT it hurts them as like you said any NPI in a win less than that teams overall NPI isn't counted.....so does beating them by 200 matter?)

Yes, the more bad wins you can't count, the worse it is.  Union's NPI will make it a 10 seed; it's NPI W/L record is 5-2, because it had to drop Buff St., Hilbert and MoVille (because each actually lowers its NPI if included). The more of those games you replace with a decent team, the bigger the NPI boost.

On the Union-Buff St. score, doesn't matter, even if that game were included in Union's NPI.  NPI does not take margin of victory into account - it just looks at win, loss or tie (and whether you were home or away).

Ok so that's what I'm asking.  Ithaca beats Buff State and Union beats Buff State.  the "final Score (NPI)" is 52.9 for Ithaca and 64.7 for Union in that game.  The SOS is 10.05 for the IC game and 18.85 for the Union game. 

So am I correct in assuming that the SOS and ranking for that game is different for each team because when Ithaca plays Buffalo State, the Buffalo State/ Union game is factored in the SOS and vice versa.  And road wins count x1.1 vs away wins x.90.

Since Ithaca has a higher NPI than Union, Unions win over Buff state earns a higher sos and npi, because Buff States sos (and the sos impact on npi) is higher because of Buff States game vs Ithaca....

Not sure if that makes any sense, but it does seem clear that Ithaca could have made the playoffs if they beat pretty much anyone other than Hilbert since Hilbert had a 18.8 ranking (3rd worst in the nation) while teams like Hartwick (41.5), Alfred State (46.0), or Husson (45.8) would have gotten Ithaca (or RPI if they had won) a pool C bid.

[ICGrad]

Thanks for doing the math, Johnny and Union.

I would add (as I did before, though somewhat confusingly) that not only does Ithaca have the impact of the Hilbert game dragging down their WPI, they also have the impact of Hilbert playing every of the LL team on their schedule as well. So a win against RPI gives Ithaca less of a boost because RPI's rating is negatively impacted by their having played Hilbert. A loss to Union hurts a little more because Union is ranked lower thanks to their having played Hilbert.

Ithaca, with 2 of 3 OOC games against top 20 opponents, didn't even come close to a Pool C bid. Coming into the weekend they weren't even in the discussion.

The unfortunate truth is that as long as Hilbert (and Buff State) remain associate members, and assuming neither suddenly becomes a more competitive program (Machiavelli gave a very nice breakdown of where these programs stand above), the LL as a conference has next to zero chance of seeing a two-loss team grab an at-large bid. Given the recent expansion of the playoff field and the fact that 5-0% of the at-large teams have 2 (or more losses) over the past two seasons, this is a shame, and not where you want to be as a conference.

[IC798891]

Given the recent expansion of the playoff field and the fact that 5-0% of the at-large teams have 2 (or more losses) over the past two seasons, this is a shame, and not where you want to be as a conference

I really hope, as a conference, we don't become dependent on blaming the Buff State's and Hilbert's and start asking why our teams cant run their OOC schedules if they want a Pool C bid.

Yeah Hilbert is godawful and Buff State slightly less awful, but man...go 9-1 and just quit letting a computer determine your fate.

Sure, maybe Ithaca was never going to do that since it mean beating Hopkins, who is just in a different weight class than anyone in the LL.

But Union lost to both Cortland and Susquehanna, both fringy top 25 teams. They had 8 turnovers and two offensive touchdowns — one of which was in garbage time.

RPI played Utica, the LL runner up, and their secondary looked like they'd never played a down of organized football before, let alone be the one you'd want to bring with you into the playoffs.

Hobart managed to lose to 4-6 Alfred and 6-4 Brockport.

Yeah, maybe Ithaca could have fooled the algorithm and snuck in had Hilbert been replaced by someone else. But no one should be penciling in the Bombers for a alternate universe win considering they needed a QB switch, second half comeback, and last second red zone stand to beat Rochester two weeks after Hilbert.

Everyone but the Union dudes should be asking how their team can be better, not just wondering about hypothetical schedules