FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

HansenRatings has projections for this week:
95% for NCC win

Look, no one wants the Cardinals to win more than me.  But this seems excessive.  There are so many new faces and it's their first game of the season.  UWO has already been tested by linfield (maybe not LINFIELD Linfield, just linfield Linfield).  A win would be great, but as sacrilegious as it may sound, a tight game or even a hard-fought loss might do them some good.  Everyone needs to learn a little more about themselves.

This is a computer algorithm, not a subjective statement. I believe Hansen himself would point out the pre-season rankings/predictions aren't as robust as the mid season ones. Although he did predict the Wheaton/Mt Union score as 30-35 (29-37 actual).

[GusD]

It's listed on NCC's 2025 schedule.

https://northcentralcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule

Beat me to it; I just got the app ping that the schedule was out.

NCC hosts Oshkosh on Saturday 9/13.

Playing on September 13th at 1 PM. That makes perfect sense especially in the era of increased player (not to mention fans) safety. It'll probably only be about 90 degrees 🫠. The game should be played at 6:00. And if Oshkosh is coming in Friday, play at 11 AM. Avoid the hottest part of the day plus UWO gets home a lot earlier.

I could see your point if NCC was in the South, but it's in Northern Illinois...the average high temperature in mid September is 77 degrees. Referring to this as a player or fan safety is just absurd.

https://weatherspark.com/m/13359/9/Average-Weather-in-September-in-Naperville-Illinois-United-States

You should have seen my point the minute you knew the game was in September, washdupcard. At this moment the predicted high in Naperville for this Saturday is indeed 90 degrees! At that temperature it won't be at all surprising to see players cramping up like crazy, and possibly passing out. And the fans sitting in the west facing stands absent of even a bit of shade will be baking like a sweet potato pie, and subject to the same possible effects as the players. So referring to these conditions as a question of player/fan safety is absurd huh??
Think again. Perhaps you've forgotten that over the years there have been several September games with temps in the 80s. In the interest of safety, not to mention comfort, September games should be played at night.

[BIGBLUE BEN]

Longtime member but had to create a new account because I lost my password and it would not send me new one!

Big Win for the Big Blue Saturday! (1st in 2 years) funny enough it was on one of only 4 other BLUE fields in the country (Luther College & Boise st, University of New Haven and University of New England). I do not know if anyone has mentioned this, but Millikin had 83 Freshman this year and that did not include the handful of transfer READY STARTERS they got as well who made an instant impact Saturday.

Sam Houston St Transfer Sylas Gomez (JR) looked the part Saturday and will be the best Millikin QB talent since Nicco Stepina (2015-2018). He has special arm talent traits and also has the ability to extend plays and scramble with his feet. I know it was only one game but he looked like a very seasoned QB and only made one bad throw Saturday which luckily was a dropped INT. The Freshman RB Re'John Zeno from Lousianna also impressed and his speed and athletism is something Millikin has not had in a half decade at the RB position. The WR looked better than I was expecting and will give some teams trouble with their YAC abilities. As for the O-line... MAJOR improvement/beef up. We just look bigger and stronger than in the last 3-4 years.

I don't know how they did it, but Billy Riebock and this coaching staff has totally revamped the look of this team in just one offseason. They look like a traditional CCIW team again with the size/speed that you would expect from a middle of the pack CCIW team. Picked Pre-season #9 I think will be a motivating factor for the Big Blue all season and after watching some of the other games around the conference, I think Millikn will be in ALOT of these conference games. I think they absolutely can and will go beat North Park next week in Chicago.

In conclusion, very impressed what I saw from the Big Blue and excited for what is to come for these guys this season and beyond!

Go Big Blue

Welcome back BigBlue Ben and Millikin.
We were discussing in previous messages the roster turnover and noticeable improvement. Oh yes and the 31 year old kicker.

Going to Chicago and beating NPU, I think would be considered an upset.

Going to Chicago and beating NPU wouldn't be an upset. It would be an indication that we have somehow shifted into an alternate universe. That's because the game is going to be played in Decatur, not Chicago.

I stand corrected. Never been happier to be wrong lol! Now I LOVE Millikin's chances Saturday in what will be the home opener in Decatur! I think it will be a very entertaining game and hopefully they can draw a packed house!

[washdupcard]

And today the forecasted high is 82 degrees. Next Saturday it's 75, so what's your point? It's mid-September in Northern Illinois. The fact that it might possibly be 90 on a random afternoon in Naperville, is not a player or fan safety issue. These players have been practicing in that type of weather for months. Has the National Weather Service issued an extreme heat warning for Saturday, advising people not to be outside or exerting themselves? That would be a safety issue. If the game was scheduled in mid July when the average high is approximately 86 degrees, then I'd possibly see your point. There are multiple high schools in the Chicago area that play Saturday afternoon games during this time period, is that also a safety issue? The fact that you might be uncomfortable doesn't make it a safety issue. To be clear, I hate the heat (yet live in Florida...go figure the one...) and I hated playing in any elevated temps...but that doesn't make it a safety issue for simply scheduling a Saturday afternoon football game in Northern Illinois when its just as likely (or more likely) to be in the high 70's than in the high 80's.

[CarollFan]

NCC article on upcoming season.

NCTV17 Article

[Gregory Sager]

Expect a big announcement to come out of Brainard Street within the next few days.

That's all that I'll say about it.

[RFMichigan]

(I'm assuming that Brainard St. refers to North Park.) Quite the tease there, Greg! I'm going to guess, "North Park to Construct New Athletic Center Complex/Gymnasium".

[CarollFan]

(I'm assuming that Brainard St. refers to North Park.) Quite the tease there, Greg! I'm going to guess, "North Park to Construct New Athletic Center Complex/Gymnasium".

He is referring to CCIW headquarters in Naperville.

[robertgoulet]

Expect a big announcement to come out of Brainard Street within the next few days.

That's all that I'll say about it.

Adding a school, eh?

[hazzben]

CCIW notes on all the games the first week.
CCIW Notebook

Some highlights from Wheaton vs. UMU.  Not sure about how they decided to edit this...

There's a brutal no call at the 2:13 mark on Mount's TD. About as textbook a penalty worthy pick play as you could run, right in front of the linesman. Wowza  24 for Wheaton throws his hands up and he's not wrong.

[D3fanboy]

can you believe that NCC lost a 1st place vote this week?  The DisReSpEcT 1!!!1!

[NCC2010]

Expect a big announcement to come out of Brainard Street within the next few days.

That's all that I'll say about it.

Adding a school, eh?

sounds like it'll be from Wisconsin

https://x.com/BQuillmanQcast/status/1966215536016052231 

[robertgoulet]

Expect a big announcement to come out of Brainard Street within the next few days.

That's all that I'll say about it.

Adding a school, eh?

sounds like it'll be from Wisconsin.

https://x.com/BQuillmanQcast/status/1966215536016052231 

Well that narrows it down to a handful since it's safe to assume the WIAC schools won't be leaving for CCIW.

[Gregory Sager]

(I'm assuming that Brainard St. refers to North Park.) Quite the tease there, Greg! I'm going to guess, "North Park to Construct New Athletic Center Complex/Gymnasium".

I wish.

(The "Construct New Athletic Center Complex/Gymnasium" part, not the "Brainard St. refers to North Park" part. As far as I know, NPU has no intention of moving the campus to Naperville.)

(Also, for the record, there are no streets named "Brainard" anywhere near the NPU campus. There's a Brainard Ave. -- this one's not a "street", it's an "avenue" -- in Chicago, but it's on the opposite end of the city. It's in the Hegewisch neighborhood on the Far Southeast Side at the Indiana border. I'd be equally unenthusiastic about my alma mater moving there as I would about it moving up the hill from North Central's campus.)

[HansenRatings]

HansenRatings has projections for this week:
95% for NCC win

Look, no one wants the Cardinals to win more than me.  But this seems excessive.  There are so many new faces and it's their first game of the season.  UWO has already been tested by linfield (maybe not LINFIELD Linfield, just linfield Linfield).  A win would be great, but as sacrilegious as it may sound, a tight game or even a hard-fought loss might do them some good.  Everyone needs to learn a little more about themselves.

This is a computer algorithm, not a subjective statement. I believe Hansen himself would point out the pre-season rankings/predictions aren't as robust as the mid season ones. Although he did predict the Wheaton/Mt Union score as 30-35 (29-37 actual).

I would say a few things:
1. I agree the spread & odds seem excessive. The spread is NCC -25.2. If there was a book offering that number, and if I were the sort of person who actually made wagers, I would be on the UWO side of that line.
2. Teams with a Week 1 bye actually tend to outperform their projections when their opponent played in Week 1 ("you improve the most between weeks 1 & 2" is probably not true)
3. Yes, North Central lost a lot, but so did everyone. They had the second most returning production in the CCIW and more than average nationally. Not many teams' backups have as much experience as North Central.
4. Early season projections aren't as accurate as late season projections, but that's mostly a function of conference vs. non-conference games, and the difference isn't that large. If you had perfect foresight and knew the outcome of every game before they happened, and assumed each team's rating stayed constant throughout the season, you would still have an absolute error predicting MOV of around 11.5. My model's error in conference games in ~12.2 and in non-con it's ~12.7.